In one way, it would be strange if this wasn’t the case. Record inflation, record prices for petrol and diesel (or, as the Americans call it, “gas”), and a President who often seems, to be generous, as if he’s lost a step or two in old age. Put ‘em all together and you get:
“I think this is going to be a biblical disaster,” said one such Democratic strategist, who did not wish to be named. “This is the reality we are in as Democrats and no one wants to face it.”
But around Washington, virtually no one expects Democrats to retain their slim House majority. One useful point of comparison is 1982, when inflation was rampant as it is now and Republicans lost a net 26 House seats with President Reagan in the White House.
There are of course still a few things that might change the course of American politics between now and November. Most prominent amongst them, of course, the pending US Supreme Court ruling on a case which offers the Justices an opportunity to reverse Roe v Wade. While a ruling abolishing Roe would be cheered to the rafters by Pro Lifers, the immediate political impact would likely be to provoke a tsunami of pro-choice, liberal political activism, which could wake up Biden’s increasingly depressed and demoralised voter base.
Indeed, that demoralised base is Biden’s biggest problem. He would probably have won in 2020 without making any promises at all, and instead just saying “I am not Donald Trump” over and over again. But make promises he did: A massive climate change bill. A massive health reform bill. A massive overhaul of voting rights. A massive welfare bill. He’s delivered none of them. And, with Democrats presently controlling both houses of Congress, he can’t even blame the other guys. It was Democrats’ failure to agree internally that sank his agenda.
A record of actual accomplishment would be nice, of course. But even that is not vital by itself. Biden’s other problem is the constant struggle to come across as competent and ahead of the game. It is notable that his ratings first took a tumble last summer during the Afghan withdrawal, which was a catastrophe which made his administration look foolish, and as if they had no clue what might happen. He has not recovered. Ineffective and incompetent is a bad combination. Add in rampant inflation, and it might be a fatal one.
There’s also the matter of the forever pandemic: Across the USA, it is Democratic states which have been the most cautious about lifting restrictions, and this week, some states actually re-imposed mask mandates. The continued and persistent closure of schools in many Democratic cities and states is a source of mounting frustration to voters.
The other issue Democrats face is aging leadership: Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House, is 82. Biden is 79. Neither of them have obvious replacements that are likely to be popular.
And against all this, what does Biden have to say? Not much, is the truth. He’s not on the ballot himself so he doesn’t have the luxury this time of saying “I am not Donald Trump”. Trump, likewise, is not on the ballot. The midterms are likely to be a straight up or down vote on the job Biden is doing.
He’s on course to get a historic kicking.