A year ago this week, US President Joe Biden won a comfortable victory in the (these days) reliably Democratic US State of Virginia on his way to sweeping Donald Trump out of office in the national election. He carried the state locals refer to as “The Old Dominion” by 8% of the vote. Virginia has two Democratic US Senators, and, for most of this century, has had a Democratic Governor. Up until a few weeks ago, this week’s election for the Governorship was assumed to be a sleepy, routine, walk in the park for Democratic Candidate (and former Bill Clinton acolyte) Terry McAuliffe, against his underdog Republican opponent, Glenn Youngkin.
But then, Afghanistan happened. And Biden’s approval rating never recovered. And now, this morning, as Virginia goes to vote, look:
CBS: Don't look now, but Youngkin has VA polling leadhttps://t.co/mVcMDIX9fz
— HotAir.com (@hotairblog) November 1, 2021
The Virginia election is very important, for a number of reasons. While the result will not dramatically affect the balance of power in Washington, it will change the nature of the political field on which Biden is playing. One year from now, voters in all 50 states will go to the polls to elect a new Congress, and a third of the Senate. Biden’s Democrats presently have a majority (albeit narrow majorities) in both chambers. Should Youngkin pull off the shock upset win tonight, many Democrats in marginal seats will start worrying about their re-election, and that may make them much more willing to vote against Biden over the coming year, to demonstrate their independence.
To make matters worse, Biden’s signature domestic policy agenda has stalled completely. His big plans for Climate Change Action, for example, have been completely stripped out of his so-called “build back better” bill, which has yet to receive a vote. That package originally started life as a $3.5 trillion dollar plan to re-make America. It included big tax increases on the rich, climate action, and a whole host of other long-sought left wing goodies. But opposition from centrist democrats and a unified Republican party has put the bill’s passage in doubt, and reduced its price tag by half. Most of Biden’s agenda has been sunk already.
And of course, even what remains may not pass, if Virginia goes sideways tonight.
Biden’s sinking approval in polls appears to be fuelled by a belief in the electorate that he is not focusing on what matters to voters – jobs, the economy, inflation, and border security. Instead, his political energies this year have been focused on long term left wing causes like Climate Change and maternity leave. If the voters rebel this evening, moderate Democrats may decide to bail on what is left of that agenda overall, and leave Biden with nothing.
It is worth noting that Biden is not the only factor in play in Virginia – the other issue tanking the Democratic candidate is education, and the role of parental choice on the curriculum. The Republican candidate, Younkin, has made opposition to so-called “critical race theory” his banner issue, and focused on culture war issues like transgender access to bathrooms in school. This later issue caught fire recently after a student was raped by a male-bodied person in a bathroom in the state, but where the incident was allegedly covered up by school authorities to prevent the rise of “transphobia”.
Democrats may still get the win they need, tonight, of course: Virginia is a reliably democratic state. The party simply has more voters than the Republicans do. But polls suggest that Republicans are more eager to vote, and that Democrats are disillusioned. That’s a recipe for a very close election, if not an outright upset.
It won’t get much coverage in the Irish Media, but Biden has suffered a very poor first year in office. And if things go sideways for him tonight, it could be a long, and painful, final three years of his term.
If you’re a nerd, results should start coming in around midnight. If you’re not a nerd, you’ll find out who won by seeing which page of the Irish Times the results are on on Wednesday. Pages 1, 2, or 3, and Biden got good news. Page 10 or after: The Republican won.