This, make no mistake, is very good news: The number of people in hospital with Covid 19 has fallen below 300 for the first time in a very long time:
https://twitter.com/MountainAsh2020/status/1437558992969076740
Good news, though, should also prompt some soul-searching. After all, it was not supposed to be like this:
In a letter sent by the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) to Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly, five separate modelling scenarios were presented for the coming months.
Under the most pessimistic scenario, there would be 681,900 cases by the end of September, while the most optimistic scenario would see 81,000 cases, the letter stated.
The most pessimistic scenario would see 12,985 hospital admissions in the same time period and 1,685 intensive care (ICU) admissions, as well as 2,170 deaths.
The most optimistic scenario would see 1,530 hospital admissions and 195 ICU admissions, as well as 165 deaths.
The “most optimistic scenario” projected 165 deaths between the end of June and September. As it is, there have been, up until the beginning of September, just over 60 deaths. The figures on deaths were out by almost 60%. The figures on cases are so far out by less, but are still on track to be an over-estimate.
Defenders of NPHET will say “oh well, the optimistic scenario was not so far out, in the end”, but that is hardly the point. This, after all, was NPHET’s very best case projection. And it certainly was not the one that got the headlines:
The National Public Health Emergency Team modelling was described by Government sources as “grim” and “sobering”.https://t.co/XnMJhQyYBo
— The Irish Times (@IrishTimes) June 29, 2021
“Grim”, and “sobering”: Remember that? Opening indoor dining was not supposed to lead us to the “optimistic” scenario. Instead, the clear warning was that it would unleash a devastating wave of plague that would claim countless lives.
These figures were not without consequence. They were produced, after all, to inform Government policy. Government policy, in turn, impacted people’s ability to run their businesses, hold weddings, see their loved ones, and have a normal life. All of that was put on hold as a result of NPHET’s projections, and their baseline scenarios – the “in the middle” projections – are on track to be out by hundreds of thousands of cases:
So what are those central scenarios?
Central 1 based on “higher social mixing from July 5th” projects 187,000 cases, 3,490 hospitalisations and 545 deaths.
Central 2, based on “moderate social mixing from July 5th” would see 408,000 cases 7,690 hospitalisations and 1,230 deaths.
Now, you would have to be a willful fool to believe that Ireland has not had “higher” or “moderate” social mixing since July 5th. We have also seen the Delta variant become dominant. So what is the excuse for getting this so wrong?
It cannot, before you say it, be the vaccines. At the time these projections were made, the vaccination programme was in full swing. Unlike NPHET, the vaccination programme’s projections have been fully met. These projections were taken into account in the modelling.
The bottom line here is that NPHET’s central scenarios scared Government in July, and provoked a delay to Ireland’s re-opening. Those central scenarios were disastrously wrong. The Irish Government paid for data, and advice, and received garbage.
Indeed, it is worth recalling just how panicked they were:
This week, Health Minister Stephen Donnelly told a parliamentary party: “The biggest hurricane that has ever hit Ireland is coming.” Politicians can continue to score points and tear into each other, or they can concentrate on formulating the best possible plans we can put in place to protect against the worst.
“The biggest hurricane ever to hit Ireland”. When people try to tell you that NPHET sort of maybe got it right (they did not) with their “most optimistic” scenario, remember that it was not the most optimistic scenario that they emphasised. The point, and intent, of making the modelling public was to scare the ever-living hell out of the public, and the politicians. And it was all garbage. Look at the charts in the second tweet here. The dotted lines are the NPHET projections. The brown squiggly line is what actually happened.
Reported numbers for daily cases, cases in hospital/ICU from latest mid-August NPHET model projections are also currently lower than Optimistic scenarios (unlikely to reach 3k daily cases by mid-Sept)
No deaths or hosp/ICU admissions were provided in these latest projections pic.twitter.com/4IlyDUqWeJ
— Derek O'Callaghan (@dgocallaghan) September 9, 2021
So, who, pray tell, will be accountable for that?
You know the answer to that already. You don’t need me to tell you.