We try to focus on Irish news here at Gript, but there’s an interesting story from Florida that is worth covering for several reasons. One of those, incidentally, is that this guy, Ron DeSantis, is definitely running for President, and angling for all those Trump voters:
The governor of Florida said he will take executive action banning the use of vaccine passports requiring proof of Covid immunity for people to “participate in normal society”.
Republican Ron DeSantis said he would take emergency action this week and called on the GOP-controlled state legislature to draft a bill making their use illegal in Florida.
His comments come as civil liberty organisations raise the alarm over the digital tracking apps being tested by states like New York, and the Biden administration plans on issuing guidance for private companies to create vaccine certifications.
“It’s completely unacceptable for either the government or the private sector to impose upon you the requirement that you show proof of vaccine to just simply be able to participate in normal society,” Mr DeSantis said.
It’s interesting for other reasons, too: This idea of a vaccine passport is gaining steam, even though it’s an absurd idea that won’t really work in practice. If you assume, at a baseline, that 15% or so of people will refuse to take a vaccine, even if it means not getting a vaccine passport, then that means that nearly every business – airlines, restaurants, pubs, and so on – will be being asked to forego 15% of their clientele. In the post-covid scramble for economic recovery, why on earth would they do that?
Bear in mind that most of these business owners will be vaccinated themselves, so the unvaccinated won’t appear to them, at least, as any kind of giant risk to their health or safety. Even if they’re officially required, they’ll be treated much as the requirements for official ID to prove your age at a disco in a small rural town: Officially observed, but regularly ignored.
So why is the idea so popular? A big part of it, of course, is the same reason lots of things are popular these days: Outright tribal vengeance. The beauty of a vaccine passport, if you’re a pro-vaxxer who has been raised on a hearty diet of social media warnings about anti-vaxxers, is that vaccine passports are a great way to enforce your will on the enemy, and punish them for their heresy. “Oh you’re an anti-vaxxer, are you? How do you like these apples?”
Some people will deny that, of course, but not very convincingly. And of course, doing things that whet our thirst to punish people we don’t like is overwhelmingly popular, so politicians are eagerly exploring the idea.
Another, less important reason that they’re in vogue, at least in Europe, of course, is that this is a thing the EU can co-ordinate. The EU absolutely loves things it can co-ordinate, because it makes the EU seem relevant and important, and emphasises the need for cross-border co-operation. No point having an Irish vaccine passport that won’t be recognised in Mallorca, is there? Spending loads of money to create something with a great EU-friendly name is therefore very attractive to Brussels, because it gives us something with an EU stamp on it that we can put in our wallets.
But the whole idea will be very short lived, if this writer had to bet, for a number of reasons.
First, most people will simply get vaccinated, and those people see the benefit of vaccination as an individual benefit: I’m safe, and that’s the important thing. Unless they’re married to someone who isn’t vaccinated, or otherwise related by blood, they won’t much care about the welfare and health of people who turn down the vaccine. People are much more liberal than we give them credit for, when there’s a selfish angle. In other words, the thirst to punish anti-vaxxers will be confined, largely, to the internet and the media, where people obsess about this sort of culture war rubbish. The average person, especially the average business owner, isn’t going to want to erect barriers to customers, when the whole point of the pandemic ending is to open up society again.
Second, it will be a nightmare to administer. The Irish vaccine process is highly decentralised to begin with – so who’s responsible for providing the vaccine certificate? If people want one, will they have to ask their doctors for a certificate of vaccination? Will the licensing authorities have to check hospital records? What office of Government would manage such a programme? It’s a potentially enormous administrative undertaking, and people should never underestimate the sheer inertia and laziness of the state when it comes to enormous administrative undertakings.
No, much more likely that the vaccine passport will be one of those ideas that floats around for years, but never goes anywhere: Like Seanad reform, or exclusion zones around abortion clinics, or elected Mayors. Nice to talk about, and a small number of people fanatically interested in it, but, at the end of the day, there are few votes in it for politicians, and no incentives for anybody else.
Still, it’s helped the Florida Governor make a name for himself in the Republican Primary, so someone’s benefitting, anyway.