I will begin this article with some exclusive inside information from a losing campaign: Niall Boylan, the defeated Independent Ireland candidate for the Dublin European constituency, had circa 1,000 posters during the election.
One other candidate, representing a political party, had ten thousand. That candidate got many thousands of fewer votes than Boylan did. So what is the lesson we can learn? That posters aren’t everything? Not quite.
Because of course, posters are really a proxy for a lot of other things. When you have 10,000 posters, as opposed to one thousand, chances are that means your campaign has more money. It also, most likely, has more volunteers: The 10,000 poster candidate had their posters put up by volunteers, who were also putting up posters for the local elections. It’s quite easy to poster a city on the scale of Dublin when you have hundreds of volunteers working on local election campaigns as well.
Here’s some other insider information: The Boylan campaign had only a very few committed volunteers – a couple of dozen at the upper limit, I am told. By contrast, the Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil candidates, as well as the Sinn Fein and Labour candidates, had their entire party’s organisation at their disposal. For all four parties, that amounts to several thousand activists knocking on doors, facing down voters, and answering questions about their candidate. Despite all that, the Boylan campaign came fifth and gave the establishment a fright. It is not an insignificant achievement.
With proper organisation, however, there is no doubt in my mind that Boylan – or indeed any one of five or six other candidates – could have won.
In the Dublin election, the left took two seats and the centrist parties (I’m using their own description) took two more. The last candidate elected – Mr. O’Riordáin – finished with 63,526 votes.
The right, by contrast, took no seats. The cumulative “right” vote – for the sake of argument I am including Aontú here though they might not include themselves in that description – polled, on the very first count, 64,105 votes. More than the total number of votes, as it turned out, needed to secure a seat.
But that actually undersells the nature of the failure, because it is not as if those 64,105 votes were the maximum votes available. Turnout in this election was low. It is a reasonable assumption that there were many more “winnable” voters who simply did not turn out, who might have turned out had they been canvassed, or reached, or talked to.
To do that, you need one effective organisation. The right, in this election, had perhaps ten ineffective organisations.
Instead of a co-ordinated and well organised campaign with canvassers working for one or two local candidate in each ward, and one or two EU candidates hand in hand, there was instead a patchwork quilt of groups working in an uncoordinated way with fifteen or sixteen different versions of the same message. To give the example of Malachy Steenson, who won his election in the locals but was not a factor in the Europeans, the question must be asked as to whether his local election victory might not have been much more resounding had he not also been focused on trying to reach voters outside his ward, and was instead focused entirely on his own area, and helping to promote an EU candidate there as well.
Instead of local cumanns and organisations that know every street in their wards and know what voters are persuadable, the right has a series of pop-up campaigns that come along every five years and try to grow votes on ground that has already been well-seeded by their opponents. All of this does not only result in a fractured vote – but thousands of votes being left on the table.
It is the same across the country: In Midlands North West, John Waters had an admirable volunteer campaign, but no money. By contrast, Peter Casey had money, but hardly any volunteers. Michelle Smith had an online presence but couldn’t afford a litir um thoghchain; Hermann Kelly and Peadar Toibin had local candidates, but perhaps slightly the wrong message (In Kelly’s case, leaving the EU, in Toibin’s, potentially leaving his seat). Ciaran Mullooly had celebrity, and the backing of a prominent TD, but little trust from right-leaning activists. In Ireland South, Mary Fitzgibbon and Una McGurk each had the almost fanatical trust of a dedicated cadre of activists, but no name recognition. There are also, of course, some people who simply should not be candidates because they lack electoral appeal. A well organised movement would weed such people out, via selection conventions.
It is no coincidence that one candidate who surprised, though still did not threaten a seat – Derek Blighe – had a little bit of everything: Enough money for posters and leaflets; name recognition and media profile; a strong online presence; local election candidates; a clear message; and committed volunteers.
Just not enough of any of them.
For all those candidates, if you add all their strengths together, you get a very formidable campaign. Separately, all of their weaknesses combine to create a mess.
A mess that still secured, in the EU elections, some 21% of the vote combined, nationally.
Fixing all of this is not as simple as waving a magic wand. Everyone who wishes to see a successful right movement in Ireland will have to make their peace that an electorally successful movement will be one that they can only agree with on perhaps 80% of the issues.
Those who want to see “mass deportations” will have to settle, perhaps, for strong restrictions on immigration and citizenship, and a fix to our voting system. Pro lifers may have to settle for something a bit less than “go back to how it was before 2018”, at least in the short term. People concerned about the WHO treaty may have to settle for a commitment to no more lockdowns or health mandates. Libertarians and small Government conservatives, like myself, may have to settle for a policy of more public spending than we might like. Hardline nationalists may have to settle for a more mainstream policy on Irish unity, and people like me might have to accept a policy on the middle east more in line with the Irish mainstream and a position on neutrality which annoys me.
Yet in return, there are many things that such a movement could unite around that would be politically popular. A commitment to free speech; a commitment to reforming sentencing so that criminals – especially those convicted of sexual offences – go to prison; a commitment to standing firm against green taxes and much of the current climate policy; a commitment to adopting, at minimum, the Danish policy on migration; a commitment to dismantling the NGO infrastructure of the left; a commitment to reform of education and the curriculum; a pledge to defend the interests of farmers and food production; a commitment to prioritising Irish people on housing lists; a commitment to, as a short term measure, guarantee funding for sick children such as those with scoliosis to receive treatment abroad.
That list is not exhaustive.
Of course, there will always be those for whom that kind of thing is not enough. There will always be those who put their names on a ballot paper out of ego, or spite, or a delusional belief that they can win simply by so doing. Such people will always exist, and will always be loud. There will also too always be imbeciles online and elsewhere who try to make a name for themselves by tearing others down – whether that be by making videos encouraging people not to transfer their votes to other candidates, or by indulging in overt racism for some “likes” from Americans.
For the broad mainstream of the right, however – people who are not “far right” or anything like it – such an achievement should not be impossible.
Difficult, yes. But not impossible.
I am in complete disbelief that tool – O’Weirdan did so well. An annoying dork with a destructive agenda which is eroding morals, values and Irish culture. I can only say, in addition to my disappointment at the caliber of those elected, I am even more disgruntled that the Irish electorate still have the blinkers on. Extremely disappointed that Stephen Kerr and Niall McConnell didn’t get in either.
Sure isn’t it the perfect way to get rid of him for 5 years 😂
🤔😜
You won’t get rid of that sinister dork so easily. He is like veniral disease. Alarming, unpleasant and extremely difficult to get rid of
That is a consummation devoutly to be wished.
I’m working on my own “little electoral strategy” – it involves changing my name, by deed poll, to “Desmond Pott” – and then putting myself forward, on the ballot paper, under the name: “Des Pott” – you will all vote for me, won’t you – my political stance is summed up in the foregoing name – no need for all that electoral leaflet stuff – besides, it’s bad for the environment …….don’t you know ???
Sure, I’d give you a vote. Now, t’would be a toss up between urself and Dustin the Turkey – I’d give you a scroll anyways
Thanks – I always rely on the kindness of strangers …… But seriously, Luke Ming Flanagan is reported, just now on the news, as saying he would consider running for the Presidency (when Michael Twee’s term ends) – just when one thought the craziness was at 10 on the Richter scale, Ming the Merciless suddenly brings things to whole new levels of lunacy !!!
Might be between himself and O’Weirdan yet
It’ll be hard to beat the craziness of an electoral area where the winners are a jockette and a beauty queen.
And the think Irish jeer the US!
Independent Ireland is the path to Government.
You’re right, I think this is the party the other right leaning parties need to merge with if they want to have an impact.
ModerTion in everything and everything in moderation
O’Riordan excepted. He is toxic no matter how moderate the dose.
Independent Ireland is more or less a farmer’s party – at least that’s how it comes across to me. That’s not necessarily a disaster but it may not have universal appeal either…
That a false impression. Up untill thirty years ago Fina Fail was the party of the small farmer and the urban working class. With that combination the regularly got a vote share in the mud 40%. Enough to regularly form single party majority governments. Look at them now. A bunch of globalist traitors.
Do you know what their policies are?
No one else does.
The left hand no problem using power against their opponents, see ORiordan calling voters who disagree with him the enemy. I’m all for using the instruments of power against the left if the time ever comes for a right leaning government.
Seeing how the Gardai were deployed against regular Joe soap I’ve no problem using that level of force against the people who cry far right at things they don’t like. The shoe will be on the other foot eventually.
By the time that shoe changes foot we won’t have a country the way things are going.
As a Leftist, I reject the epithet being assigned to O Rlordain. There is nothing of Connolly in him.
He’s a socialist in the Bertie Ahern tradition.
Mile Buiochas, Mr McGuirk, for all the free PR, electioneering advice these past few months to the “Nationalist Movement”. I hope some of it will be at least heeded by the various, and many!!, party leaders and individuals.
While not a member of any political party but a consummate political junkie, I have offered to volunteer in campaigns this past decade, as I saw, like others, the terrible direction the country was heading. Most of the time I was not taken up on my offer or treated halfheartedly.
John McGurke is an able and clever guy. What about putting together a minimum platform yourself John and sending it out to the various nationalists parties as a basis for further talks on cooperation/merger ?.
I have had a similar experience twice.
Our candidates on their first time out. 4 winners in Dublin, 3 from aged parties older than the state itself, the other on the eve of celebrating its centenary. And you’d call that a win, would ya? If they were any good, after 100 years of rule between them, the country would not be in the mess they have put it in. Niall Boylan, whose party wasn’t heard of until recent months, some don’t even know if it’s a party at all or not, frightened the wits out of them. I think that party is a loose attachment. There wasn’t long to prepare, they got themselves together somehow. I voted Boylan no 2. The others were smothered in govt funding. The right didn’t get a cent. I did not see one poster for Boylan. The birds were frightened at the gobs of the others, all bridged up, crowned, bonded and whitened on the lamposts. Some of the few posters of the right, all paid for, from their own pockets, stolen. Their kind, badmouthed and frozen out by the media. Boylan left out of the final RTÉ debate, because he’d change the narrative and take votes from those promoting govt spin on immigration. Brid Smith, a veteran activist of the far wrong, said it’s worrying that the ‘far right’ candidates can move in and get council seats. Her statement is a subversion of the democracy our ancestors died for. The migrants registered with ruthless efficiency. Registration voting hubs. Import, register and bus to the polling station, to swing the council election in favour of the govt. Election rigging. Martin Hayden, minister of state said 12,000 new voters were registered in his home county of Kildare last year alone. The voice of the right is silenced in Ireland, while it is the voice of the respectable parties of Europe, who continue to add to their power. Thanks to those who ran and broke the chains that bound us, we have a voice at the table for the first time. The electorate didn’t know most of our candidates’ names. I had to look them up myself to give them my vote. Mention of them not allowed in the media. The chains are broken. Freedom beckons.
For the likes of Brid Smith and other fellow travellers in the “far wrong”, democracy means the sort they have in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, aka North Korea.
ABC A=Always B= Be C=Canvassing
Michelle as of yesterday canvassing for GE
Finance is a major stumbling block to new parties but this is an excellent time to setup a major funding campaign. Surely there are 100,000 people that could contribute €2 per week to sort out 6 of the most pressing problems in our country, sounds like a bargain.
– In our small Local Electoral Area [electorate just less than 20,000] the big parties had up to 1000 posters advertising Councillors, MEP’ and sitting TD’s .
Since the last General Election Political Parties voted themselves or helped themselves to €75 million of Taxpayers money paid out under THE PAYMENTS TO POLITICAL PARTIES UNDER THE ELECTORAL ACTS
€75 million of taxpayer money to existing political parties is an insurmountable hurdle for any new parties to overcome.
When a dominant position (quasi monopoly) is achieved either in politics or business it is easy for the dominators to crush any emerging competition by setting the promotion / advertising bar so high that it effectively eliminates any competition.
Payments to political parties under the Electoral Acts for the first 5 months of 2024 €7.144 million that is over € 1.4 million per month.
For years 2020 to 2024 inclusive the PAYMENTS to POLITICAL PARTIES will be close to € 75 million over 5 years.
In fairness, some amount of garbage has gotten in so far. Aodhan even got in and he is a real piece of shit. Maybe in five years if the rest of Europe votes left, Ireland will vote right since the country is about 5 years behind the latest trends. Some class A dopes voting in these elections anyway.
Dublin is the most woke European Parliament Constituency in Europe. No opposition. All deranged. No right wing party allowed in contrast to European countries who have strong right wing parties and balance. The wokes are run by the radical feminist mafia, of the hard left, all in the media, NGOs, politics and the indoctrination of children in schools. These airheads spout the most ridiculous nonsense and even tried their best to change the constitution.. Any mention of God, religion or morals triggers them. All the wokes voted in Riordan, who is more opposed to God, than the devil himself.
The political class are worried by the rise of the right. The language from the centre has change already. Harris used the ‘D’ word ‘Deportation’ for the first time in response to Fatima’s question yesterday. The soft left mantra of ‘Green Social Justice’ and referring to the right as the enemy. They are going after Harris. Sinn Fein don’t know whether to stick or twist. The right in Europe could be our saviours. Their priority has to be to curb the power of the ECHR and its influence on national laws pertaining to immigration. Unless the right fix that fundamental pull factor the continent will collapse under the weight of the cost of immigration. That is the single most important challenge of the right.
I wouldn’t put much trust in the U-Turn language of FG. Didn’t Hitler promise not to invade Poland after the Munich conference?
It’ll be hilarious if Le Pen’s party wins the election in France.
What will follow is an unmerciful surge of migrants across the English channel who’ll keep going till they reach Dublin.
We’re in danger of falling into the old trap of using the language of our enemies when we divide voters into left and right. This suits our political opponents.
We are opposed to liberalism and that makes use anti-liberal, not far right or right.
It’s time we gather under the anti-liberal banner and let our opponents gather under their liberal politics flag 🏳️🌈. Then it’s time to remove this 🏳️🌈 liberal political flag from our government buildings and schools.
You’re right, you’re right; of course you’re right. Pun not intended. Great article.
I literally saw more posters from Barry Andrews within ten minutes of leaving the house on day one of the campaign than I saw from Niall Boylan during the entire campaign.
We need to get behind people who have a realistic chance of winning. The usual purity spirals from those who want it all end up getting nothing only Labour FF/FG winning seats.
Also I have been involved in a few anti migration protests over the years, one thing people don’t realise is a lot of FF/FG and even some SF people on the ground have engaged and helped certain protests discreetly and behind the scenes. Getting information and even helping protesters but not much in public. They are getting votes that way, same with many Independents like the team Lowry and Healy Raes. I don’t agree with it but that’s the reality in many areas.
I spoke to a aontu Councillor for over 15 minutes and he agreed with everything I said so I suggested to him why won’t you run as a candidate for independent Ireland instead of aontu and he said Loyalty……he did conseed that his wife would probably vote for independent Ireland if they ran a candidate
Aontu are more on our side than not, so it’s absurd people are attacking them from the right. Even if people actually just transferred to Aontu and Independent Ireland rather than leaving blanks we’d be in a much better position.
Weird to have such loyalty to a party that has only existed 4 or 5 years.
I recently seen the Healey Reas describe as “vote whores”. Fairly apt I think
Elections aren’t the be-all and end-all, but to the extent that they are, this article is reasonable, realistic (/sobering) and helpful.
Agree.
We can all debate the discuss the merits of getting tough on illegal immigration but with a verdict like the ECJ yesterday more people will be eligible for ‘legal asylum’ going forward. We need a broader debate on the definition of asylum and who qualifies for it or else we’re going to be swamped in the future. The conspiracy theory that a shadowy group or organisation is engaged in a plantation exercise to place more people into Ireland is correct…………. that group is the EU and ECJ (not shadowy but hiding in plain sight!)
I could be wrong but I think the Irish Freedom Party stance on the EU is that it should return to a collection of independent states that cooperate very closely together. Rather like it was thirty years ago. That is a laudable policy and is a far cry from leaving the EU.
I didn’t know that the IFP had gone back on Irexit.
I dislike the EU, but Irexit is pie in the sky.
And
electorally debillitating.
The idea that there should be just one nationalist, conservative, patriotic type party has advantages and disadvantages.
We have Independent Ireland containing different viewpoints, the Irish Freedom party with a focus on Euro-scepticism, Ireland First, Aontu for the culturally conservative niche, The Irish People’s party with a good program and professional branding hampered by lack of resources, the National Party for the more idealistic, and lots of individuals who do great work in their local areas.
For the most important issue, immigration, the policies range from moderate immigration reforms all the way to repatriation and expulsion.
Even if one large party doesn’t come into being, alliances and voting pacts need to get going.
The advantages of just one single party which can agree to a compromise program, attract and pool resources, and gain a larger number of votes is obvious:
It is more likely to get into power and work with the mainstream parties to get things done.
The disadvantages are also obvious.
A party like that will inevitably water-down its goals, and in the worse case scenario eventually become absorbed into the mainstream and end up just like everyone else.
That is why I think that while it is necessary to have a larger, more moderate, and more popular party, a smaller and more uncompromising party is absolutely essential.
Whether that is the National Party, or something else.
Even if this kind of party doesn’t initially get many votes, it will act like a pressure group to keep the focus on the issues of immigration, as well as being a symbol of a different, more idealistic, and better Ireland.
An historical parallel from our own country are the roles played by the Irish Parliamentary Party and the old Sinn Fein before the First World War.
The Irish Parliamentary Party was entirely moderate, attracted a wide range of Irish voters, and worked within the system to slowly chip away at it’s foundations. Despite all the criticism, it served a valuable function by slowly acclimatising Irish public opinion to the idea of independence.
Its rival, the Sinn Fein of 1905-1918, was on the contrary uncompromising and had a vision of an ideal Ireland which they held up like a torch to light the way.
In the end it was the contributions of both which eventually led to success.
So I think we need the two approaches which will act like a pincher movement.
A larger, more broad based party will attract the popular vote, get into government and chip away at the system.
A smaller, uncompromising and idealistic party will serve as a home for the most committed people and the purest ideals.
Just like the old days, two parties attacking the political system from two different directions will eventually destroy it.
Excellent comment.
I think some effective Independents, if they can become TD’s, can also form part of that ‘pressure’ group.
Michael McNamara, for example, is effective at at chipping away at the veneer of competence of our Government Ministers.