In the aftermath of the local and European elections, there are two ways of looking at the broad outline of Irish politics.
If one was to take the long-term view, then the fact is that the two parties that have dominated the state since its foundation are in one of their weakest collective states of all time. Between them, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael divided just shy of 46% of the votes in the local elections, and just north of 41% in the European elections. By contrast, in the local and European elections of 1999, those figures were 67% and 64%, respectively. Over the last quarter of a century, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have lost a third of their voters. It is hard to see any way they will achieve that kind of vote share again over the next decade or several.
If, however, one was to take the short-term view, then the position of FF and FG looks perhaps more dominant than it ever has: Now that the two parties are, in effect, in a kind of long-term marriage, the 46% of the vote they can command makes them very difficult to dislodge – especially without an obvious alternative. Their position is increasingly akin to that of Australia’s “Coalition” – a single party which is formally two separate parties, the Liberals and the Nationals. At this election, as Michael McDowell noted in the Irish Times yesterday, one of the most notable things that struck tallymen at the counts was the emergence of a clear transfer pattern between the two parties – legions and legions of voters who now vote FF 1 and FG 2, or vice versa. Though there will be no formal merger, their own voters are clearly deciding that once you’re married, there’s no point not following through with the consummation.
In the past, you could get one of them out of government by choosing the other. And there were at least some differences between the two parties on policy. But for now, they increasingly look like a unified monolith combining almost half the votes. Absent another economic crash a la 2008 on their watch, it is hard to see them being defeated any time soon.
One of the things that has not changed, between the elections of 1999 and 2024, is the fragmented nature of the opposition. In 1999, Labour and the Green Party split 12% of the vote between them. In 2024, Labour, the Greens, and the Social Democrats split….. almost exactly 12% of the vote between them. In 1999, the Progressive Democrats won 3.9% of the vote and 25 councillors, and in 2024, Independent Ireland (which is in a slightly different, but broadly similar, space) took a similar share.
The big changes since 1999 and 2024 are the growing strength of Sinn Fein and Independents. Between SF and Independents, in 1999, about 14% of the votes were shared. In 2024, Sinn Fein and Independents shared nearly 40% of the vote. The problem is that Sinn Fein (on this weekend’s performance) are no threat to form a Government, and Independents could not agree a Government even were they strong enough to challenge for one.
The growth of Independents and Sinn Fein at the expense of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael is therefore the single biggest change in Irish politics over the past 25 years. These two changes can broadly be classed as losses of votes by FF and FG to the nationalist left, and the nationalist right, though some left independents clearly exist.
The difficulty is that while the emergent nationalist left has had a party to coalesce around, the nationalist right is made up by and large of ex-FF and FG voters voting for people who were once of those parties: Mattie McGrath; The Healy Raes; Verona Murphy; Michael Lowry; and so on. It is this particular fragmentation, perhaps more than any other, that has allowed Irish politics to march leftwards.
The left – as we see from the Labour Green and Soc Dem vote – is not especially stronger than it was 25 years ago, in electoral terms. The big difference is that the rightmost flank of the political spectrum, which once had a home in Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, is now politically vagrant.
In many such cases, it is represented by people, like the Healy Raes, and Mr. Lowry, who have very little interest in national politics and are content to remain the big dogs in their own back yard and leverage whatever influence they have for local pork barrel spending. In other cases, it is dominated by independents who fear that party membership would compromise their own chances of election if the party ever had to make a tough decision. I will name no names here.
The emergence of Independent Ireland, however, might be some sort of a panacea for this problem, since the weekend proved their brand, on its very first outing, to be electorally viable. If that party can continue to round up politicians and voters, it has real promise, but many problems too.
The first of these is that you cannot pretend to be a serious political party absent an agreed policy platform and a party whip – otherwise you will never be a viable Government partner.
The second is that with the greatest possible respect to their current TDs, they lack compelling or charismatic leadership. Michael Collins is a proven vote-getter in rural Cork, but one might doubt his electoral appeal in the Dublin Suburbs in a general election. The same goes for the other current members.
Probably, the single greatest chance to “change the game” between now and the election would be for somebody like the aforementioned Senator McDowell to step into the Independent Ireland leadership, giving that party both a policy focus, and very credible national leadership that blended urban middle class appeal with the broad swathe of rural voters that already align with the party. There might be, in such circumstances, as many as 15-20 Dáil seats available to it at the next election.
Of course, Michael McDowell is no across-the-board conservative, or a nationalist, and he might give some people absolute fits, in particular with his instinctive pro-Europeanism and social liberalism in some areas. He may also have no desire whatever to get involved at this stage of what has already been a notable and is by now comfortable life. Yet such an event would immediately shift the political ground rightward in Ireland by several degrees, and be a much better situation than that which faces those of us frustrated by the lie of the political land as it stands.
Micheal mc Dowell is a stellar member of the Irish judicial system and his honesty, integrity, loyalty and professionalism is of paramount importance and value to the Irish people. He guided us Irish citizens through the constitution referendum with great determination and conviction, he spoke with objective truth and facts and therefore we won that malevolent war against this duplicitous enemy that is our government.
We need minister Michael McDowell to help us Irish indigenous people to fight this insidious evil war that is destroying our country, our democracy, our future, our safety, our economy, our cultural identity, our heritage, our values, our religious traditions and to stop the erosion of our history. This government is evil and their only purpose is to decimate our country for their masters.
Ireland is for the Irish. There is no question about that. We have never united and democratically voted this invasion in our country. The government’s efforts to silently push a hate speech bill through our legislature without informing the public is another example of their treasonous, corrupt and perfidious agenda.
Please senator Michael McDowell we need your support and guidance now more than ever to help us Irish citizens in our pursuit to rescue our country and our democracy. Our children and grandchildren will be forever indebted to you if you should take up position to protect us with your honest voice.
I still don’t trust him. I do hope I’m wrong.
I understand your fears and skepticism but I genuinely do believe he is old school and has conviction unlike the alligators in the swamp in Dáil Eireann today.
McDowell isn’t a “member of the judiciary”. He is a barrister. He would have little time for the extreme ethno-nationalist sentiments you have expressed in your comments.
That’s most interesting, how would you know his position on this comment? Are you aligned to his thoughts and views or in fact him?
I think anyone who has followed his columns in the Irish Times and his frequent public pronouncments would be quite aware of what McDowell supports and doesn’t support. If you read John McGuirk’s opinion piece you will see that the latter is well aware of McDowell’s stance.
I suspect the one of the reason that might make McDowell hesitate about returning to the political fray as leader of a centre-right alternative in the current febrile political environment is the problem of keeping the far-right looneys and their political poison at a a long arms length.
I agree with the poster Peter Murray. I’ve heard him talk of his grandfather Eoin Mac Neill and he gave the distinct impression that he is not a follower of his republicanism or nationalism.
McDowell was a voice of reason during the referendums and doubtlessly guided many to a double NO vote. He’s more left wing than right. Though commonsense politics could shift anyone’s beliefs. Four years ago, who would have thought gender ideology would become a thing in 2024.
Another who comes to mind is Maria Stein. She eviserated Michael Martin during one of the debates. She’s very erudite, smart, is from Dublin, looks great but she’s got toddler children and is a working barrister. If she was interested, where would she find the time. Busy woman that she already is.
Independent Ireland’s mantra should be ‘commonsense politics’ going forward.
I echo your sentiments on Maria Stein. she’s a remarkable lady and is a voice of reason for the Irish people. she’s extremely well versed and most erudite. She’s a magnificent force of nature. Highly intelligent snd qualified as an architect, barrister and childcare advocate. She manage to also home school her 5 children. She would be a very competent and capable contender!
The past two years in Ireland would drive a 90s liberal to ‘extreme ethno-nationalism’, the ingress of Islam alone is worrying ppl deeply.
Fgff look so dated with their aging politicians, much of the time the ‘newbie fgff’ say things like ‘youth on your side’ yet their appearance shows that of having prematurely aged, just look at Harris for example. Can’t see fgff lasting into the new decade 2030 unless by then we are eating ze bugs
We’re an aging country, average age now ~38. When I was a child in the 80’s it was 25.
I believe Carol Nolan should be the leader to unite the nationalist movement vote. She may not want it though.
If only McDowell was 20 years younger. I’d say he’d only choose the presidency over the seanad now. But who knows, there might be another few rounds left in him.
One of the biggest causes of this, is that there is no real local government in ireland so people Elect TDs to deal with local issues, leaving the big parties free to make hay
Almost nervous to dip my toe into this discussion, but a quote from Konstantin Kisin just popped up on my feed (re: what is far-right?);
“Now it means 1990s liberals who believe in well-managed migration, being careful with big pharma and women without penises.”
And that’s pretty much how I vote. But I gave a preference to every candidate to the right of my position last week, and none to the left, because, at the end of the day, I have a lot more in common with the former than anyone to the left of me.
So yes to Michael McDowell. Or whoever is best for the role, because something is definitely needed to pull it all together.
Thanks.
Independent Ireland seems a loose collection of disgruntled FFFGer’s.
First sign of any tough decision would see them splinter. They lack a common cause.
A party of the Right is possible and it will have to start with IFP, IF.
To all volunteers the planned Easter rising is cancelled stand down.The apple does not fall far from the tree.
I agree that McDowell is the most credible figure to lead a grouping that could replace the disasterous Green Party in a FG/FF coalition after the autumn general election.
However, I am 100% certain that McDowell would have nothing whatsoever to do with any of the more malodorous anti-all immigration elements who populate the political menagerie of the far right. Neither would he tolerate those who would like a return of the Catholic norms 1950s – nor the anti-vaxxers or other conspiracy-theorists.
There is a market out there for a common-sense, classic-liberal, right-of-centre party or grouping that would work to rebalance the left-liberal over-reach of recent years, and would take an effective, hard-headed, and no nonsense approach to the abuse of the international protection system.
If that is your objective, Michael McDowell is your man!
What brought you here? You most certainly seem to have issues with the content and opinions of others..
I brought me here. I’m a frequent contributor to Gript discussions. You seem to have a problem with being exposed to opinions that aren’t to your liking.
I like the Green Party in some ways. Less reliance on oil and gas means less money being spend by Irish tax payers to purchase goods from countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Plus, they are a party that did what they promised – there has been a noticeable increase in bus services in Dublin and surrounding areas. I thoroughly disliked the handling of the international protection process. But credit where credit is due
I am really happy that your bus service has improved. Of more national importance is the asylum mess and its countrywide consequences. The current mess is almost entirely the responsibility of Minister Roderick O’Gorman of the Green Party. O’Gorman was also responsible for the ill-judged referenda.
The Citizens Assembly proposed the referenda, not O’Gorman. I didn’t vote for the proposals but there was opposition to the proposals from the right and left of the political spectrum.
And thanks to the Greens, there are newer bus services across the country. I was surprised to learn there were even local routes in Dingle on a recent visit. Much welcomed.
I agree that the numbers of asylum seekers are too high. The government’s offer to the Ukrainians was too appealing resulting in secondary influx from other European countries etc.
You’re behind the curve on the covid jabs, it’s mainstream now that they are dangerous and ineffective, Fauci is being dismantled for pulling the pandemic measures out of his a**e. Anybody that’s still getting boosted at this stage is playing with fire. The ‘common-sense, classic-liberal, right-of-centre party or grouping’ won’t be enough with the way the world is going in terms of mass migration, war etc, it would eventually just regress into what we have now through entropy.
OK I have been lambasted as ffer or fger because I dared said we need to lose some of the nationalism stuff along with some other right wing religious conspiracy theory stuff.
So I am going to ask …
When posters around here talk about nationalism/nationalist what is exactly they mean?
When posters talk about getting rid of woke politics what do they mean?
When posters talk about stopping immigration what exactly do they have in mind?
When posters talk about the bogus climate change agenda, do you want no efforts towards cutting emissions?
Do posters want to leave EU?
I think it would be very useful to actually find out what people want, how far most people are willing to go and then formulate
what exactly would appeal to people.
A lot of us are fed up with the current, but we need a focused alternative to rally around and replace the current incumbents.
I don’t know if it would be possible to set up some type of poll or survey to actually create some type of poll where we could formulate what most of us want.
Has there been a survey already to ascertain this information?
Michael McDowell lost his seat in Dail Eireann the same day as the second Kerry brother became a TD, that’s the kindof politicians we like in this country. We are a pretty tricky lot. I don’t believe the Irish public want a man like that. I do not like the Legal profession but i believe McDowell is straight-up.
Basically, there’s nothing right of Fine Gael in Irish politics bar the loonies like the Irish Freedom Party. Someone like McDowell, who’s sensible but not bat-shit insane, might do well.
And the loonies aren’t running the establishment already?
I agree. A common-sense, hard-headed, classic liberal party, with practical policies to stop asylum-abuse and push-back against left-liberal over-reach is very electable in the current political environment, and McDowell is definitely the person to lead it.
On the other hand, the swivel-eyed loonies and conspiratory theorists of the far-right are electoral poison to all but a small over-excited minority, and association with the latter would be fatal in a Dail election.
The other problem with the far-right is that they try to undermine the democratic process. You can see it in the comment section with allegation of vote rigging (“bussing in non-nationals” etc) without a shred of proof. To top it off, the loonies think anyone with black or brown skin should be deported.
I’d love a party with stricter asylum policies but this is the first time I’ve ever given a preference for PBP just cos I’d rather have far-left loonies over far-right loonies like Blighe
You speak alot about loonies.define looney. isnt Paul murphy from PBP the lad you voted for the same lad that’s raising a ‘gender neutral’ baby ??!!!
Looney = casting doubts on the electoral process without proof
Looney = wanting to deport black/ brown people
Looney = wanting to strip Irish nationality from naturalised citizens
Looney = Great Replacement Theory
I mean this is just the tip of the iceberg. Plenty more of the sort out there.
Btw, I agree that PBP are crazy. But at least they don’t go around filming random people on the street and harassing them based on their skin colour. PBP were my last preference but I felt morally obliged to give them a preference because the likes of Blighe were running
So you are morally obliged to raise a ‘gender neutral’ baby ? How about recommend and coerce an experimental mRNA drug to children ? Or ban citizens from entering premises if they didn’t have proof of Vax ID? Or make it unlawful to go for a beverage without purchasing a meal for 9euro ? There is crazy and there is dangerous
When it comes to loonies I have no preference btween right and left. I just don’t vote for them.
It you want stricter asylum policies don’t give any preference to open-borders people like PBP.
I bet you took your vaccine and your multiple boosters. Who would listen to you in all fairness! A cattle to the slaughter.
I did, and I am alive and well. Did your mental issues precede your refusal to vaccinate?
I feel deeply saddened for you and those around you that you accused of having a mental health issue because they didn’t follow the coercion of the evil Dr death -Tony Fauci and Bill Gates and their big pharma investors. Let’s hope those side effects- embolisms, blood clots, neurological disorders, heart attacks, myocarditis, pericarditis, turbo cancers and many more alongside the exponential rise in unexplained deaths amongst young people and athlete’s doesn’t come to haunt you. Let’s hope those spike proteins don’t shaft away at your own DNA.
You’re a true cattle and the establishment love your sort as they’re very partial to those that lend themselves to their nefarious and insidious agendas without question. Your supercilious attitude will fail you in the end.
Independent Ireland would be considered to the right of FG since they want immigration controls, want to preserve Ireland and Irish communities and don’t believe in screwing us to death in some crusade to save the planet that does nothing, but beggar us whilst the real polluters (US, China, Russia, etc) no doubt laugh at us as gobdaws.
Aontu would be considered to the right in terms of social issues.