Many people were surprised when the Vatican Press Office announced on Saturday that Pope Francis would be visiting the Italian city of L’Aquila at the end of August.
The sudden announcement immediately led to a wave of speculation, not only in Rome, but also in the press and on social media, with some seeing it as a signal that Pope Francis could be considering resigning soon. The visit is significant because L’Aquila is the burial place of Pope Celestine V, who led the Catholic Church for just five months from 5 July to 13 December 1294, when he resigned. He was one of the few Popes to ever resign, and was followed 700 years later when Pope Benedict XVI resigned in 2013.
A few years before Pope Benedict XVI resigned, he also travelled to the tomb of Pope Celeste V in the Basilica di Santa Maria di Collemaggio in L’Aquila, which prompted speculation from Vatican commentators that this was an indication from the Pope that he was thinking of resigning, and in that instance, they were correct.
The timing of Pope Francis’s visit has also ignited interest because the Pope is also scheduled to travel to L’Aquila on Sunday, August 28th, which is just one day after he will be creating 21 new Cardinals at a consistory on August 27th.
It is these Cardinals who will select the Pope’s successor, which will bring to a total 73 Cardinals appointed by the Argentinian Pope. The more Cardinals he appoints, commentators say, the more likely it is that the next Pope will be similar to him regarding ideologies, tone, and style – even though that is not necessarily a guarantee.
Following his trip to L’Aquila, the Pope is scheduled to meet with some of those newly appointed Cardinals to discuss the new Vatican constitution which came into force on 5th June. The news of this unusual meeting has also added fuel to the fire of speculation.
The world’s cardinals ordinarily only come together when it’s time to elect a new pontiff. Although on paper, the meeting is focused on reviewing the pope’s recent reform of the Vatican’s central bureaucracy (one of the main tasks for which he was elected), it has also been widely interpreted as an opportunity for the cardinals to get to know each other.
All three events, coinciding with each other – the trip to L’Aquila, the creation of new Cardinals, and the implementation of the new Vatican constitution – is leading some to believe that Pope Francis may be thinking of following in his predecessor Pope Benedict’s footsteps and resigning. However, at this stage, it must be reiterated that this is all merely speculation, and the Vatican, nor Pope Francis himself, have said anything about a possible resignation.
Pope Francis’ health has also long been the subject of speculation and could also be a factor. Rumours of speculation also surfaced last summer, when the Pope was hospitalised for colon surgery, and again this year when he was seen in visible pain walking. The 85-year-old has now begun to use a wheelchair. Some, however, harbour serious doubts that he will resign in August, unless his health takes a drastic turn for the worse.
There are other reasons for scepticism of the resignation narrative. One explanation for the unusual timing of the creation of the new Cardinals, which had been expected to take place in November, could be that travelling to Rome during the off-season time for tourism is cheaper. The Pope could also want the Cardinals to save money and reduce the time spent away from their dioceses by having the consistory and the meeting in the one trip.
The Pope is, afterall, known to be frugal, and is known to expect the same thriftiness from his advisors. He cut the Cardinals’ salaries by 10% over the Covid pandemic so he could continue to pay the Vatican’s lay employees.
Pope Francis’ planned trips also indicate that he may not be ready to resign; Francis has a trip to Kazakhstan planned for September, and a few rumoured trips for 2023, although Popes can pass trips onto their successors. For instance, both Benedict XVI’s and Pope Francis’ first international papal visits were to World Youth Day events that the Popes before them had committed to attending.
Another convincing reason people do not believe Pope Francis will resign is because Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI is still living. Pope Francis will likely want to make some changes to the role of retired Pope so he can dispel the idea that there are two Popes, and it is hard to imagine Francis will take such steps while Benedict remains emeritus.
Prior to Benedict’s historic resignation in 2013, stepping down wasn’t seen as an option for modern popes. Pope Francis has previously made it clear that his predecessor’s decision to resign “should not be considered an exception” – however, Benedict’s decision to step down, which came without any forewarning, also created a climate in which Popes to be will face more scrutiny about whether they’ll leave the papacy and how.
“I think this sort of chatter is inevitable,” said Austen Ivereigh, Pope Francis’ biographer. Although Ivereigh met with Francis recently and did not come away from the meeting with the sense that a resignation was coming, he says: “Benedict opened the door to every future pope discerning whether, when the time comes, it’s right to stand down”.