Perhaps nothing symbolised Ireland’s protracted Covid lockdowns more than the ubiquitous horse box.
For long the symbol of provincial backwardness in Ireland, Covid saw the emergence of the improvised horse box cum coffee outlet. Suddenly, no urban space was complete without its own chic equine-themed coffee outlet dispensing lattes and the like to Ireland’s most discerning coffee aficionados.
However, talk of a new retail revival based around the notion of a cosmopolitan café culture may be somewhat wide of the mark. Even allowing for those donning the green jersey, there’s still probably a limit to the number of lattes anyone is realistically going to down in a single day. There may even be other more practical considerations – the spectacle of Ireland’s trendiest hipsters cowering behind a horse box while clutching a white flat in driving November rain may not be all that likely after all.
Ireland’s so called thriving coffee scene may be saying more about the perilous state of its high street than it is about some nascent revival of its retail sector. Indeed, a look at any high street in Ireland these days will reveal more than its share of shuttered premises.
Some of the recent high profile casualties in the retail sector include heavy weights such as Debenhams, Topshop, Oasis and Monsoon. With state supports only now tapering off, other names are sure to be added to this list. Of course, Covid wasn’t directly responsible for all of these closures. Many high street outlets were already struggling competing with their online counterparts; the extended Covid lockdowns merely expedited a process that was already well advanced.
The curious thing about the economic impact of Covid is that it may well affect Dublin more adversely than other places. Once the consumer honey pot for many international retail giants, Dublin and its suburban shopping centres may well now be facing an uncertain future.
Shuttered shops are nothing new in Ireland particularly in small towns and villages throughout the length and breadth of the country. Indeed, dereliction in provincial towns has long been accepted by Ireland’s ruling political classes as an inevitable trade off for Dublin’s prosperity.
What marks the Covid lockdown as different is that this phenomenon is now more evident on the streets of Dublin and in its once thriving suburban shopping malls. This, after all, is where most of the high profile international outlets located. No one needs reminding that there never was a Topshop, Debenhams and the like in towns like Ballaghereen, Listowel and Youghal.
The other seismic change triggered by the Covid lockdown related to work and the emergence of remote working. What had been talked about for years now became a reality overnight as thousands left the Dublin office for the new experience of remote working from home.
In time, this may well be viewed as a game changer in revitalising parts of Ireland that officialdom had long forgotten. Without economic activity many parts of Ireland outside of the M50 have, for many years, been slowly bleeding to death. Despite all the political rhetoric about regional development, this was something that was largely accepted as the inevitable price of progress.
Remote working may well turn this on its head. While the demise of the Dublin office may well be greatly exaggerated, it is clear that blended working involving some form of remote working is here to stay. It is areas outside the M50 that stand to gain most from this and it is the economy built around the Dublin office that stands to lose most from this change. This may well be happening in spite of the actions of Ireland’s political classes rather than because of them.
The move to some form of blended remote working and the consequent abandonment of the Dublin office by workers may have been driven by other factors also. Housing has been a constant issue rumbling under the body politic in recent times. The problem has been particularly acute in Dublin.
While the wealthy and those entitled to social housing have, to some extent, been catered for it is the worker on the average wage who has been forced to fend for themselves in the housing market. For many workers on a modest salary, there is the growing realisation that the dream of owning a home inside the M50 is nothing more than a pipe dream. This is why moving out of Dublin made so much sense to many people.
Add in Dublin’s growing quality of life issues such as anti-social behaviour, drugs and traffic and it may well be that Dublin won’t be emerging from this crisis any time soon. Certainly, Dublin City Council and its choir of competing leftist councillors and recent lord mayors appear to be more interested in virtue signalling and flag flying than in improving the quality of life for those living in the beleaguered capital.
When the dust settles and the PUP payments finally tail off, we may well be looking at a changed landscape on Ireland’s high street. As in all upheavals, there will be threats and opportunities. There are certainly big threats lurking for the economy and retail landscape built around the Dublin office. Equally, there are new emerging opportunities for Ireland beyond the M50 if they can be acted upon.
So where to now for Ireland’s high street? Does its new equine-themed coffee culture really herald a new start? Or, in the best time honoured equine traditions, does it signal another false start? Only time will tell.