To look at the nightly news, one would not know that Europe’s biggest conflict since the Second World War rumbles on, with the exception of whenever something particularly heinous or dramatic occurs. But proceed slowly and painfully it does, and it’s worth the odd situation update, at the very least, because one way or another, the outcome will have consequences not just for European order, but for the international order too.
The war has changed much since the early days with which so many were familiar, plastered all over the news and internet as initial coverage was. Russia’s lightning advances from the north, south and east saw it conquer vast swathes of Ukrainian territory, shocking its neighbour into action. Over the following months, Russia was forced out of the north and northeast, regions that are home to the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, and second city, Kharkiv, respectively.
This was partly accomplished by one of the war’s most dramatic phases – a Ukrainian counteroffensive that began in September 2022 and saw over 500 settlements and 12,000 square kilometres of territory returned to Ukrainian control. This was accompanied by another counteroffensive in Ukraine’s south, which, while less expansive, saw Russia withdraw from another of Ukraine’s major cities, Kherson, situated at the mouth of the Dnipro river as it spills out into the Black Sea.
There was much speculation at the time about whether or not Russian lines would collapse totally, but suffice to say – they didn’t. In fact, in the southeast they hardened. This was exemplified by Russian General Sergey Surovikin’s ‘Surovikin Line,’ which was a complex set of fortifications engineered and constructed on their namesake’s orders, and which proved effective in thwarting a 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive that sought to repeat the earlier, aforementioned successes.
The failure of that counteroffensive marked something of a shift in the winds. With Ukraine failing to retake significant territory in the south and east, initiative shifted to Russia, which has undertaken a grinding, widespread offensive since then. To give a sense of just how “grinding,” the battle for the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, which spanned 10 months from July 2022 to May 2023 and saw Russia victorious (at the cost of an estimated +80,000 casualties), continues just down the road, in the neighbouring town of Chasiv Yar. The British Ministry of Defence (MoD) commented recently that attacks on Chasiv Yar, which is situated on high ground to the west of Bakhmut, rose by 200% from March to April, indicating that Russia was trying to take control of the town.
“Despite the substantial increase in attacks on this axis, Russia made only minor tactical gains in the area during April and almost certainly sustained heavy losses,” the MoD said.
Chasiv Yar is but one flashpoint in Ukraine’s east, where Russia has continued its offensive operations and edged forward since October 2023. South and slightly west of the Bakhmut region is Avdiivka, a city seized by Russia in February of this year after months of bloody attrition. Its capture signified the biggest change on the more than 1,000km-long front line since Russian troops seized Bakhmut in May 2023. Since taking Avdiivka, Russia has pushed further west as another prong of its eastern offensive.
In recent weeks, Russia once again crossed the international border north of Ukraine’s second city, Kharkiv, appearing to have taken partial control of the towns of Vovchansk and Starytsia.
Over the weekend, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that they are not currently seeking to capture Kharkiv, but rather are trying to establish a “security zone” for Russia’s border region following repeated attacks on his country’s Belgorod Oblast.
Ukrainian authorities in recent days have described this reopened northern front as “stabilised” for the time being, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky saying that Russian troops had only managed to advance to the first of Ukraine’s three defensive lines in the region.
Regardless, the incursion represents one of Russia’s most significant ground attacks since the launch of the full-scale war in February 2022, and has seen thousands of civilians flee the border region towards Kharkiv. Ukrainian commanders have expressed concern about how the situation might deteriorate if Russian forces manage to get within artillery range of the city.
To use the phrase again, the war has shifted from one of dynamism to one of attrition. Whereas once Putin hoped his army would take the Ukrainian capital within days, for the moment, he must content himself with taking lesser towns and settlements over the course of months. The Russian president appears to have accommodated himself to the reality of a long war, however, recently appointing an economist, Andrei Belousov, as the country’s new defence minister in a move that was seen as prioritising resource management for a prolonged campaign.
In the meantime, according to reliable Polish analyst, Konrad Muzyka, for Ukraine, “the situation looks very bad and is not expected to improve in the coming weeks,” adding that “we have reached the point where the situation on the front is the worst since March 2022. The numerical advantage of the Russians is constantly growing, as is the number of attacks. Ukraine did not survive the darkest hour. It’s just about to start”. He posted this before Russia launched its renewed Kharkiv-region offensive.
Zapraszam na krótką nitkę o obecnej sytuacji na froncie. W skrócie, sytuacja wygląda bardzo źle i nie należy oczekiwać jej poprawy w najbliższych tygodniach.
— Konrad Muzyka – Rochan Consulting (@konrad_muzyka) April 29, 2024
Ukrainians have understandably, and rightly, laid the blame for this at the feet of dwindling western munitions, but critical voices within Ukraine and without also apportion blame to aspects of Ukrainian strategy. Tens of thousands of men were wounded and killed in the doomed defence of Avdiivka and Bakhmut and supplies wasted, losses compounded by an ill-judged commitment to the 2023 counteroffensive after it had become clear that success was unlikely.
It remains to be seen what effect Ukraine’s controversial new mobilisation law (which took effect on Saturday) will have. The revised legislation is intended to simplify the identification of conscripts nationwide, while also offering incentives for soldiers, such as cash bonuses and financial aid. It comes shortly after the age of conscription was lowered from 27 to 25, an effort Ukrainian leadership hopes will plug one of its most critical gaps as Russia seeks to exploit an increasingly exhausted defender with wave after wave of attack.
At present, the most optimistic scenario offered for Ukraine by some analysts is to hold out against Russia’s current push while simultaneously building up forces with which to strike back in 2025 against a stalled aggressor. However, with the threat of another northeastern front opening in the Sumy direction in the coming weeks, it remains to be seen whether Ukraine can afford to hold back what men or firepower it has.