At the end of the year, whoever leads Fine Gael is set to take over as Taoiseach from Micheál Martin as a condition of the government coalition.
Some would naturally assume that this means we’ll see a return of Tánaiste Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach, as he is obviously the current leader of Fine Gael. Varadkar himself certainly seemed to view his return as a foregone conclusion at one stage, saying it would be “a kind of poetry” to come back to the role.
But considering the fact that Varadkar is still under criminal investigation, and will continue to be well into 2022, many in the party have rightly concluded that this might not actually be a great look for the Fine Gael brand as a whole.
Varadkar criminal investigation now likely to continue well into 2022 https://t.co/5bvJ2S3sra
— The Irish Times (@IrishTimes) November 9, 2021
After all, it wouldn’t really sit well for the self-styled “Party of Law and Order” to be led by a Taoiseach who is literally being probed by the Gardaí for suspected criminal offences.
Fine Gael is the party of law and order. We believe that government should be tough on crime and tough on the causes of crime. To find out more, visit https://t.co/AcPpTZ7fQE #LookForward pic.twitter.com/ZN5A3o58J3
— Fine Gael (@FineGael) January 17, 2020
And so, the party has naturally been mulling a change in leadership between now and December.
Which is why the Irish Examiner this week decided to ask Fine Gael TDs, Senators and MEPs who they would pick as Varadkar’s natural successor. And the answers were surprising to say the least.
As it happens, the number one most popular pick for party leader among Fine Gael politicians is none other than Simon Harris.
What’s truly astonishing about this is we don’t have to speculate about how the public feel about Harris.
In his own constituency of Wicklow, where he has been politically active for 13 years, he barely managed to scrape into his seat at the last election on the 15th and final count, failing to achieve a quota.
Now of course a win is a win, even by one vote, and Harris no doubt won fair and square. That’s how voting in a Republic works. But the point is, the voters who know him best in the whole island were clearly far from enthusiastic about him or his campaign. So with that in mind, does anyone seriously believe that his levels of support are higher in Cork, or Offaly, or Donegal?
I think it’s safe to assume that if he can only barely crawl over the line in his own constituency, he would not be elected in any other jurisdiction. And yet, in theory, this is a man who may lead the entire country this time next year.
So, to put it another way, as Fine Gael’s polling number slump to a 17-year low, their first choice for a new leader is someone who is even less popular than his predecessor.
At the risk of sounding mean or harsh, there is nothing in Harris’ political CV that you could really point to as a great success, and much you could point to as an abject failure.
He was the Minister for Health from 2016 to 2020, during which time the country was rocked by the CervicalCheck cancer scandal, the St. James’ Childrens hospital price explosion, and record hospital waiting lists and numbers of people on trolleys.
I’m not saying all of this is Harris’ fault per se – the HSE is a big system, and there are many people involved and many moving parts. But he was the Minister who oversaw all of this devastation directly or indirectly. If he didn’t cause it, he certainly didn’t stop it either.
At the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, Harris took to the airwaves to say that we probably wouldn’t be able to develop a Covid vaccine, as there were 18 other Covids before this latest 19th one, and we didn’t have a vaccine for any of those.
LISTEN: Irish Minister for Health Simon Harris tells the nation not to get too excited about a #Covid_19 vaccine because they haven't yet found one for the 18 OTHER coronaviruses. pic.twitter.com/9ZV07DFCne
— Josiah Burke (@realJosiahBurke) April 22, 2020
In other words, total and utter waffle in at least two major ways. He clearly didn’t know even the most basic facts of what he was talking about. And this was during a public health emergency.
He was even the subject of a motion of no confidence.
Now, as Higher Education Minister, he’s not done anything particularly revolutionary with the role. We know he’s ambitious and has wanted to be Taoiseach for years, but there’s very little to recommend him for the job if we’re just looking at merit and track record alone.
The second most popular pick after Harris was Justice Minister Helen McEntee, with the justification being:
So in other words, she’s refused to deport people who break Irish laws (i.e. she’s not done her job) and she’s taken maternity leave.
You know who else has taken maternity leave? My mam. Your mam. Probably a quarter of the population. Does that mean they’re all qualified to run the country?
McEntee is not particularly good at her job either, and has not made Irish streets safer, as a recent Gript article by John McGuirk clearly outlined.
Despite the endless series of shocking, high profile crimes in Ireland, Helen McEntee is the subject of regular media praise, and often spoken of as a future Taoiseach. It's time for accountability for the Minister for Justice, writes JOHN MCGUIRK:https://t.co/RUsIF8rs3o
— gript (@griptmedia) February 15, 2022
These bizarre choices show the vast chasm in thought process between parties like Fine Gael and the general public. If this is the way the party is picking its leadership, they may be in bigger electoral trouble than they know.