A new poll suggests that support for Sinn Féin continues to decline, while Fine Gael’s vote has risen to 23%, so that both parties are neck and neck. The Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll found that Sinn Féin support has fallen most sharply among younger, urban, working-class voters.
In contrast to polling last weekend, the poll did not find a surge for Independent candidates, but found that support for for that cohort and for Fianna Fáil and smaller parties was steady since polling in February of this year.
A continuation of the present coalition was the combination preferred by 33% of voters, while 20% would favour a government led by Sinn Féin without Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
The poll suggests a fall of 11 points in total for Sinn Féin over the last two polls for the Irish Times.
Irish Times / IPSOS B&A
FG 23% (+4) 📈
SF 23% (-5) 📉
FF 20% (nc)
Ind/Oth 17% (nc)
Lab 5% (+1)
Green 4% (-1)
SocDem 3% (-1)
PBP/Sol 2% (nc)
Aontú 1% (nc)The rumours were true.
This is the most seismic Irish opinion poll in recent years.
22 days to June 7th elections.
— David W. Higgins (@higginsdavidw) May 16, 2024
It found that undecided voters had fallen sharply by six points to 19 per cent, and that Micheál Martin was the highest rated of the party leaders.
Though satisfaction with the Government has slipped by four points to 31 per cent, Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin’s rating nudged up by two points to 46 per cent, making him the most popular party leader. Mr Harris debuts in the series with a 38 per cent satisfaction rating, two points higher than Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald, who sees her rating slip by two points. Green leader Eamon Ryan gains a point to 21 per cent.
Asked about the new Taoiseach, one-fifth of voters (20 per cent) said that they believe he will bring Fine Gael in “a new direction”, while 36 per cent said they expected him to be “more of the same”. The largest cohort — 38 per cent — of respondents, however, said that they were “waiting to hear what he has to say”.
The poll was conducted among a representative sample of adults aged 18 years and upwards across 150 sampling points throughout all constituencies. Personal in-home interviewing took place between May 11th and 15th, 2024. The total number of interviews conducted was 1,500. The sample size for this poll is larger than typical for Irish Times/Ipsos B&A polls to accommodate 500 interviews in each of the European Parliament constituencies, the results of which will be reported later this week. The accuracy is estimated at plus or minus 2.5 per cent.