As I understand the nationalist view of politics and international relations, it can be summed up in the phrase “Country name first”. That is to say, a country should always pursue its own rational national interests before those of others.
A few weeks after the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza began, I wrote for Gript on the topic of the “forgotten” war, in Syria. Here’s an extract, that I think is relevant to recent events:
“An estimated 13 million persons have been displaced, rendered homeless, or simply fled for their lives.
Of that 13 million, at least 6million are estimated by the United Nations to have left Syria altogether, with about half going to neighbouring Turkey. At least one million Syrians have arrived in the European Union, seeking refugee status.”
Turkey has been hosting three million refugees from the Syrian War – all of them fleeing persecution at the hands of Bashar Al-Assad. Turkey is also the country that did the most to arm and support the rebels who in recent days have overthrown Assad. Turkey is also now pushing those three million refugees to go back to Syria, and many of them are reportedly doing so.
Turkey, in other words, has acted in its own interests. It seeks both to send its own refugees home, and gain a grateful client state to the south, with echoes of restoring the old Turkish empire.
So too has Israel: In recent days I have seen the usual suspects denouncing Israel for working with “Islamic radicals and Jihadists” to destabilise the Assad regime. Yet the Israelis have a very clear rationale for doing so: They have disconnected Iran from Lebanon, gained vital territory in the Golan Heights, including the strategically vital outpost atop Mount Hermon, destroyed the military infrastructure of the Syrian state, and entirely isolated an already crippled Hezbollah. Israel has acted in its own interests.
So, what is in the interests of Ireland and the European Union?
Clearly, in the short term, it is that many of the million Syrians hiding from Assad in Europe are able to go home. Getting them to go home would be a big boon to a struggling German Government ahead of the coming election there. It would ease some pressure on Macron. And it could hardly hurt matters in Ireland, either.
I am struck by the fact that tomorrow, the Irish President will receive, on a courtesy call, the President of Egypt, Field Marshal Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.
President Al-Sisi is a dictator who seized power in Egypt by overthrowing a democratically elected President. He rules in effect as a warlord, but one who is rational and maintains the stability of his country and behaves as a rational actor in the region. The Irish Government has no issue doing business with him, even as it wails and screeches about human rights abuses elsewhere. So long as Egypt keeps buying our live exports and praising us for our line on Gaza, the Egyptian monster is welcome here and Michael D. Higgins will keep his mouth shut. Clearly, Ireland is capable of a cold headed “our interests first” approach when it thinks it can get away with it.
So what are Ireland’s and Europe’s interests in Syria?
They are, one might think, first of all to promote stability since instability creates an outflow of migrants. They are secondly to provide a mechanism to repatriate many Syrians who live here who no longer need fear for their lives at home. And they are thirdly to prevent a recurrence of the civil war.
The Syrian rebels, then, are the only game in town. They at least represent the majority of the population, as Sunni Muslims. They also inherit a country that has been crippled by war and sanctions, and desperately needs support and trade and foreign investment. This is a vacuum that will be filled, one way or the other: The new Syrian regime will either trade with Europe and the USA, or it will find a willing China or Russia there to step up to the plate and provide it with cash and other needs in return for Oil.
Whatever happens, we know that Europe will be the destination for millions more refugees if it all goes wrong. Therefore, it makes sense for the EU to be proactively engaging with the Syrian rebels and seeking to make allies of them. They do not need to be pleasant people. They do not need to be champions of Human Rights. They simply need to be reliable, and controllable.
If the Irish Government can roll out a red carpet for Field Marshall Al-Sisi tomorrow, then the Syrian rebels are hardly beyond the pale.