Ireland is on track to miss its national and European Union climate commitments, in a failure that will result in a “significant call on the public purse,” an Oireachtas committee heard on Tuesday.
In a statement to the Budget Oversight Committee this week, Climate Change Advisory Council (CCAC) chairperson Marie Donnelly warned that the state must eliminate fossil fuel use by the end of the next decade to align with environmental imperatives.
The scale of the challenge is “enormous,” Donnelly said, describing efforts to date as “disappointing.”
The fiscal implications of the current trajectory are stark. Donnelly noted that while Ireland has set a national target to slash emissions by 51% by 2030 compared to 2018 levels, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) projections suggest a reduction of just 23% under a “best case scenario.”
Failure to bridge this gap and meet EU-mandated energy targets could expose the Irish taxpayer to costs ranging from €3 billion to €26 billion, according to council estimates.
However, the projections regarding potential fines have previously been rejected by the government.
“This is back-of-the-envelope stuff,” Climate Minister Darragh O’Brien told Gript in October 2025.
At the time, the Fianna Fáil Minister said that there is “no formula” or “calculation” that has been agreed regarding the cost of compliance for countries that miss their 2030 targets.
“I have certainly put forward my views and government views directly to the EU Commission on that as recently as earlier on in September,” O’Brien said.
“There’s no formula or calculation and no agreement around cost of compliance.”
On that occasion, Gript asked if the government would pay a penalty if the European Commission ordered the state to “cough up” €20 billion.
“I don’t see that happening,” O’Brien said, adding that he was “not going to deal with hypotheticals.”