And so, we finally have an answer from Independent Ireland to the charges the party has faced, in the days since it announced its partnership with the European Democrats in the European Parliament, that it has betrayed its voters. On Wednesday evening, a lengthy statement – in excess of 2,500 words – was posted to the party website. If you don’t want to read the whole thing, and trust me to summarise it briefly, then I can do it in three words: Bugger off, whingers.
If you want a lengthier summary of the party’s case, then I’ll try and offer that as fairly as I can in about 10% of the words they took:
Basically, they argue, the partnership with the European Democrats is entirely pragmatic, and about Ciarán Mullooly’s ability to deliver the best possible outcomes for his constituents. It is absurd, they suggest, to suggest that Independent Ireland has suddenly gone “woke” simply because of the “transitive properties” of signing up to work with the most “woke” party in the European Parliament. The party complains that it has sustained “abuse” online from “culture warriors”, but that it shall never be a party of culture warriors itself, but a party of “common sense”. Voters concerned about these issues are urged to await the release of its upcoming manifesto for the General Election, which will definitively show where it stands. There are some swipes at the media and “commentators” and “hurlers on the ditch” – presumably referring to this outlet and writer – for making too much of this issue. There is an acknowledgement and thanks to former Party Chairwoman, Elaine Mullally, who resigned this week in protest at the party’s deal with the European Democrats, and the announced appointment of Cork Councillor Ken O’Flynn to replace her. The whole statement is perhaps best summed up in the following line: “A spokesperson for Independent Ireland explained: “In Europe, making friends and influencing people is the name of the game.”
So there you have it: Independent Ireland are engaged in grown up politics, crossing political boundaries to get things done in the name of the game, while those of its recent voters who are disillusioned are simply engaging in “culture war nonsense”. That’s the official position of the party, which incidentally cancelled a public meeting due to be held in the midlands this week which might, one imagines, have featured some culture war nonsense.
It’s not hard to see the strategy here: Independent Ireland is placing a very large wager on its future that the palpable anger at it online will not be reflected amongst the wider population, who will retain their affection for politicians like Michael Collins and Michael Fitzmaurice and ignore “wild speculation” online to side with them when the election comes around. “The base”, which the statement uses to refer to the party’s disappointed supporters, will either have to like it or lump it, as the former Chairwoman did when she lumped off out of the party this week. The party is betting that this will all die down and most people will put up with it, choosing its candidates in the heat of an election campaign when it once again tries to sell an anti-establishment and populist message.
The problem, and the reason this is a risky bet, is that Independent Ireland may well be right that it has not alienated the majority of its potential voters. What it has done, however, is to alienate a likely majority of its potential activists, supporters, canvassers, and probably a fair few potential candidates. Those being the people who help you win over exactly the kinds of voter who wouldn’t care which EU group the party joined.
The irony here is that this is all downside, with no upside: The party’s claims amount to an assertion that the voters don’t really care about what group Indepdendent Ireland signs up to in the European Parliament, and that this is essentially an obsession of the party’s base. But that’s exactly why the smarter play would be to keep your base happy on a question like this safe in the knowledge that the voters don’t really care. If you’ve a strategic decision to make where either choice will make no real difference to persuadable voters, but the choice will either enthuse or depress your own supporters, then the choice is a no-brainer. Independent Ireland have chosen to depress their own supporters for what they apparently acknowledge is a decision that will not win or lose them a single vote with the public.
The most damning thing about all of this, I think, is that it reveals whose opinions Independent Ireland care more about: Joining one of the right-leaning groups in the European Parliament would, undoubtedly, have provoked a flurry of criticism in the Irish media and from politicians across the left of the Irish centre. Asked to choose between alienating Irish Times reporters and Labour Party TDs on one hand, and their own voters and activists on the other, Independent Ireland chose to ditch its own national chairwoman and then call those who shared her concerns “culture warriors”.
The reason this is so damning is that there is no reason not to imagine that this is not exactly the same kind of choice they would make in Government: It is the choice voters have watched Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael make for years, and it is the reason that so many ex-FF and ex-FG voters are looking for an alternative in the first place. Independent Ireland has just signalled to those voters and activists that the party has the same terrible instincts when it comes to their natural base as the two big parties have.
As I say, a risky bet. And one the party did not need to make.