European Union member states are set to vote this Friday on whether to approve or reject the long-awaited EU-Mercosur trade agreement.
The deal, which has been under development for 25 years, faces a critical turning point as countries decide whether to form a blocking minority to stop the pact.
In Ireland, Taoiseach Micheál Martin has not yet ruled out supporting the deal. Speaking during a diplomatic trip to China this week, he said that a final decision is expected by the end of the week.
Martin noted that what he described as progress has been made over the last 12 months, citing new safeguards and cooperation with like-minded countries as reasons for optimism about the deal.
The agreement would allow the Mercosur bloc, consisting of the South American states of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay, to export 99,000 tonnes of beef to the EU at a 7.5% tariff. It also permits the export of 180,000 tonnes of poultry.
To address concerns, the EU Commission has linked the trade deal to increased funding within the Common Agricultural Policy.
Martin described these measures as a welcome move to protect farmer incomes.
However, the deal continues to face strong domestic opposition from some quarters.
The Irish Farmers’ Association has demanded a no vote from Irish lawmakers, arguing that the agreement violates the current Programme for Government, which reads: “This Government will: Work with like-minded EU countries to stand up for Irish farmers and defend our interests in opposing the current Mercosur trade deal.”
Farmers have expressed fears that the Irish market could be flooded with cheaper beef and poultry produced under different – and, they argue, worse – regulatory standards. Independent Minister of State Sean Canney prepares to meet the Taoiseach to discuss these regulatory disparities.
IFA President Francie Gorman said the European Commission was engaging in a “ploy” to get Member States on board for the Mercosur trade deal “by making a convoluted proposal on CAP funding.”
“Trying to link Mercosur to the CAP smacks of desperation and shows the Mercosur deal cannot stand on its own two feet,” Gorman said.
“The two are separate issues and should remain so.”
The head of the IFA has held talks with COPA President Massimiliano Giansanti ahead of an emergency meeting, which aims to coordinate further opposition to the trade pact. The two groups previously organised a protest in Brussels last month, leading to a delay in the original vote.
“This deal is bad for Irish farmers and very damaging for public health, based on the findings of the IFA/Farmers Journal investigation two months ago and the recent Brazilian beef recall due to the presence of hormones,” he said.
“The Government cannot countenance any position that would offer any sign of support for this deal.”
He said that regardless of the outcome this week, the European Parliament would still have to ratify the deal.
“Farmers will expect Irish MEPs to oppose this deal and to work with colleagues to build opposition to it,” he added.
To pass a proposal like the Mercosur trade deal, qualified majority voting is the standard method used by the European Union.
First, 55% of member states must vote in favor, which currently means 15 out of the 27 member state countries. Second, those supporting countries must represent at least 65% of the total EU population.
This system is designed to ensure that a deal has broad support from both a majority of governments and a majority of the people living in the EU. Therefore, a deal can be stopped if a blocking minority is formed.
This requires at least four member states representing more than 35% of the EU population to vote against the proposal.
According to France24, the European Commission appears to have won the support of Germany, Spain, and, as of Tuesday morning, Italy, which is critical for the measure’s success.
With Poland and Hungary firmly against the agreement and France remaining skeptical, Italy’s position could ultimately decide whether the deal gets finalised.
It remains to be seen how Ireland will ultimately vote on Friday, with cabinet yet to make a decision.