UK health chiefs have warned that flu deaths could hit 60,000 in the worst winter Britain has seen for 50 years because of reduced immunity due to lockdowns and social distancing, as the NHS launches its biggest ever flu vaccination drive.
More than 35 million people across the UK will be offered flu jabs by the NHS, with experts warning that lockdowns and social distancing has led to a drop in immunity. Officials have voiced fears that this winter could see a staggering 60,000 flu deaths – which would be the worst figure in Britain since the 1968 Hong Kong Flu pandemic.
Experts are also concerned about the effectiveness of this year’s flu jabs, owing to the fact that the lack of flu last year made it harder for scientists to sample the virus and predict the dominant strains.
Health chiefs have said that government-imposed extended lockdowns and social distancing measures over the past 18 months have now put the public at greater risk of flu.
The dire warning from health experts in the UK follows a similar exhortation from an infectious disease expert in the US last month. Professor Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, said that a worldwide influenza outbreak could be worse than the Covid pandemic, with models suggesting that it could kill up to 33 million people in the first six months.
He said a dire flu pandemic is a “serious and real” threat. Prof Osterholm was speaking at the launch of the influenza vaccine roadmap, an initiative launched by various prominent organisations including the World Health Organisation and Wellcome. The initiative aims to develop vaccines against both the seasonal flu – which kills roughly 650,000 people worldwide yearly – and pandemic influenza. Currently flu vaccines are founded on technology first developed in the 1940s and need to be formulated yearly depending on what strains of the disease are in circulation. Oftentimes, this is a matter of speculation and as a result the success rate in often somewhere between 20 and 60 per cent, however some years it’s as low as 10 per cent.
“Prior to covid-19 influenza pandemics were the number one biological risk to humans and this hasn’t changed,” said Prof Osterholm.
“During the 100 years between 1918 and 2018, we had four influenza pandemics. This clearly illustrates that the risk of pandemic influenza is a serious and real threat. The question is not if we will have another influenza pandemic, but when,” he added.
The UK’s national health service, the NHS, has already commenced the rollout of flu jabs, with a major new campaign being launched today (Friday October 8) in a bid to ramp up take-up of the vaccine in the UK.
A lack of immunity could mean a rise in deaths
Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, deputy chief medical officer, said: “Not many people got flu last year because of Covid-19 restrictions, so there isn’t as much natural immunity in our communities as usual.
“We will see flu circulating this winter; it might be higher than usual and that makes it a significant public health concern,” he added.
Officials highlighted modelling from the Academy of Medical Sciences, which suggests this winter the UK could see between 15,000 and 60,000 flu deaths. This compares with an average of 11,000 deaths a year in the five years prior to the emergence of Covid-19.
The modelling issues a warning that this winter could be much worse than normal for flu, specifically because of the physical distancing measures and lack of social interaction implemented by governments over the last year and a half.
Amid the warnings, a Sage adviser has suggested that the flu vaccine should be taken by people classed as non-vulnerable who have interaction with elderly relatives.
On BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Wendy Barclay, Professor of Virology at Imperial College London and a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said that it is “so important” for people to get the flu vaccination “early in the season” this year due to lower immunity after prolonged social distancing and lockdown measures resulted in significantly fewer infections than precious years. Prof Barclay warned that people can unknowingly infect others with the flu without being aware they have caught the flu virus themselves.
Professor Barclay ventured that “it could be the case” that lockdown lowered flu immunity among the general population, which is why “it’s so important that we help our immune systems and get that little extra boost by getting the vaccine early in the season”.
Though getting the flu vaccination is a “personal choice for everyone”, she said that “it’s worth considering your own circumstance” as getting the jab “protects you against the illness but it also protects other people around you”.
An enormous UK vaccine drive comes as concerns mount that the combination of Covid-19 infections and flu could cripple health services, increasing the risk of another lockdown or “Plan B” measures laid out by Boris Johnson, including vaccine passports, compulsory masking and a return to working from home for office staff.
Everyone over the age of 50 and under the age of 16 will be offered the flu vaccine, as well as healthcare workers, pregnant women, and millions of people with underlying health conditions. At the same time, Covid-19 booster jabs will be offered to around 30 million people, including all over the age of 50.
A poll commissioned by the UK’s Cabinet Office found one third of respondents did not know that coronavirus and flu could circulate at the same time.