The potential cost of Ireland failing to meet its 2030 EU climate targets remains unclear as no framework currently exists for fines, according to Climate Minister Darragh O’Brien.
Responding to questions from Independent TD Barry Heneghan in the Dáil this week, the Fianna Fáil Minister confirmed there is currently no specific outline at an EU level detailing potential fines Ireland might face.
“There is no framework for the fines,” O’Brien said.
“I have read the Economic and Social Research Institute, ESRI, reports and other independent reports on what the fines might be. At a European level, a discussion needs to happen about ensuring that states invest further, as Deputy Heneghan has rightly said.”
O’Brien acknowledged the stringent nature of the targets set under the EU’s Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR), describing them as “very challenging.”
“We are going in the right direction but I am acutely aware that they are very exacting targets,” he said.
He also said he did not think that many EU member states would overperform on their own targets “to be honest”.
“I will be having discussions with European colleagues around the framework for any potential fines,” he said.
“However, the EU, instead of just fining states, must look at ways to ensure that states invest further in their energy infrastructure, in measures to reduce emissions and in renewable energy.”
The ESR, part of the EU’s broader strategy to reduce emissions by at least 55% by 2030 relative to 1990 levels, mandates binding annual emission reduction targets for Member States in sectors such as domestic transport, agriculture, buildings, small industry, and waste.
Deputy Heneghan, who represents the Regional Independent Group within the Government, pressed O’Brien on whether cross-simulation or cost analysis had been carried out regarding potential fines.
“Has the Department carried out any cross-simulation or cost analysis of the potential fines that we are going to face if we do not reach our 2030 climate targets?” asked Heneghan.
“Does the Minister agree that we should put the equivalent investment into our country rather than paying other EU countries, as a tap on the back, for the hard work they did?”
Heneghan highlighted offshore renewable energy as critical to meeting Ireland’s targets, calling for significantly greater investment in port infrastructure.
“While I welcome the fact that there has been a €90 million investment in Cork port, it is not enough,” he said.
“We need to be investing hundreds of millions of euro in our ports because we need to extend them out and widen them. Otherwise, the giant vessels that are going to be delivering the components for the future of offshore renewable energy development will not be able to get into the ports and will not be as efficient as possible.”
He added: “Will the Department commit to investing hundreds of millions of euro right now to prevent us facing billions in fines in the future? It is the young people up here who will be paying taxes on this. It is not going to be a one-time thing. This is going to be our future if we do not reach our targets. We will be fined again and again. We need to solve this now, at the start of the Government’s term, rather than in five years’ time.”
The EU’s Effort Sharing Regulation, amended in April 2023, now aims for a 40% reduction in emissions from key sectors by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. Member States are responsible for achieving their national targets through individual policies and measures, such as promoting renewable energy, improving energy efficiency, and implementing climate-friendly agricultural practices.
Last month a joint report by the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council and the Climate Change Advisory Council described the potential cost if Ireland misses its targets as “staggering”, claiming that it could cost the country anywhere from €8 billion to €26 billion.
Ireland is currently on course to exceed its 2030 greenhouse gas emissions target for transport, buildings, small industry, waste, and agriculture by about 57%.