Recently a website called The Burkean published an article under the headline “What Does Irish Right-Wing Unity Look Like?” That may be the most important question in Irish politics right now.
When we look at the politics of our neighbours in the UK, France and Germany, we can see parties representing the political Right with substantial support (Reform UK, National Rally and Alternativ für Deutschland). Each of these parties wants cultural conservatism, effective action to limit immigration, strong law and order and is sceptical about granting ever greater powers to an ever-less accountable European Union. Latest opinion polls have these parties on national support that ranges from 25% to 36%.
In Ireland there is no equivalent.
Fifty years ago, Ireland was regarded as incorrigibly conservative and church ridden. And there have been occasions in the meantime when conservative voices have been heard. The 2004 Citizenship Referendum saw voters opt – by 4 to 1 – to remove from the constitution automatic citizenship purely as a consequence of being born in Ireland. In 2024, voters rejected proposals to expand the constitutional definition of the family to include “durable relationships” even though nearly the entire political establishment backed those proposals.
Those 2024 referenda were opposed by Aontú and by Independent Ireland. Aontú is currently on 6% poll support with Independent Ireland on 5%. And there are lots of Independents who would occupy a similar space on the political spectrum.
But there is no single party dominating that spectrum. And support for the parties that do occupy that political space is modest by comparison with Britain, France and Germany. That is surprising given Ireland’s catastrophic immigration policy, its utter subservience to the European Union and the political establishment’s wholesale adoption of daft politically correct beliefs.
Why is support for voices of the Right so modest in Ireland?
Reason 1 – while the Right remains fragmented, it is easier for it to be ignored by both the media and the public. This helps sustain a negative Catch-22 situation where low support reduces the incentive to unite while lack of unity helps to sustain low support levels.
Reason 2 – by contrast to the systems of Britain, France and Germany which encourage political consolidation, the Irish political system sustains fragmentation.
The last UK general election in 2024, saw Labour win two thirds of the seats with just one third of the national vote. In a first past the post system, a political bloc is heavily penalised for splitting in two. By contrast, in Ireland, supporters of one half of a divided bloc can sustain the national standing of that bloc by transferring their vote to its other half after they’ve voting for their preferred candidates In the UK, a heavy premium is put on parties appealing to the same voting segments to reach an agreement to divide seats among them well before an election. Here there is no such impetus.
Reason 3 – Irish political culture is often characterised by national subservience. In the decades leading up to 1916, Ireland’s politics were dominated by the pro-Empire Home Rule Party. After the Easter Rising, that party was electorally wiped off the map. Is Ireland’s current pro-EU, politically correct consensus built on foundations similarly weak to those before 1916?
Reason 4 – the Right is divided on what it stands for. The broad umbrella of the Irish Right contains both those who favour free market liberalism and those who favour significant state intervention in the economy. It comprises both social conservatives and social liberals. And it encompasses both those who supported the Provisional IRA’s armed struggle and those who vigorously opposed it.
Reason 5 – there is no clear mechanism, short of an election, by which the disparate voices of the Right can definitively decide the emphasis on the key political issues which divide it is likely to be the most electorally advantageous. Plus, there are countless potential local rivalries that cannot be easily resolved by a directive from Dublin.
It seems to me that unity of the Right before the next general election is unlikely as the Right’s various strands will each reckon that they would be better taking their chances with voters than trusting in a necessarily delicate unification process. Unity can be considered after voters have spoken, and the weight of different voices of the Right have been determined electorally (and thus definitively).
At that point, after an election, the Irish political system may help encourage unity.
It is possible that the disparate voices of the Right may perform sufficiently strongly for them to be able to help form the next government. Negotiating and sustaining support for a new government will be a lot easier to achieve under the umbrella of a new party. The prospect of an imminent senate election where key supporters can secure Oireachtas membership may be another piece of political glue that can help the Right to coalesce.
What can the Right do this side of the next general election to best sustain its influence on the election’s far side?
Step 1 – Develop detailed and coherent policy platforms that put current government incompetence to shame.
How can Ireland’s dependence on the US multinational sector be used to spur development of our indigenous sector? Does the government have a plan for adapting to the brave new world of Artificial Intelligence (AI)? In a world of AI, does it make sense to offer 3 and 4-year university degree as a default option to our young? Where is the government’s detailed plan on national reunification?
What would an alternative, restrictive policy on immigration look like? How might electronic tagging be practically used to sustain a tougher approach to law and order? Can cultural radicalism be rolled back? How? If dementia is immensely costly to Ireland’s health and care systema and, if shingles vaccines reduce the likelihood of dementia by 20%, why doesn’t the HSE offer free shingles vaccines to everyone aged 50 and over?
Step 2 – Hold public debates to consider policies in specific areas, joint canvasses at bye-elections and to signal that while the disparate voices of the Right may be organisationally independent, they are united when it comes to key themes and to key events.
Step 3 – Don’t attack one another in public. Instead, agree to disagree. A political non-aggression pact before the next general election is the minimum requirement to allow for unification post-election.
Step 4 – Go a step beyond a non-aggression pact with a formal vote transfer agreement. The coming bye-elections in Galway West and in Dublin Central would be a good place to start.
The above steps are all well and good. But they will struggle to reconcile deep personal or deep political differences. The Burkean article highlighted the differences between Maria Steen and Michael McDowell. While the two had collaborated successfully during the 2004 Family and Care referenda, there was no coloration when it came to the presidential election last year.
The Burkean concluded that “If social conservatives genuinely want to achieve tangible outcomes – whether on family policy, cultural questions, or life issues – it will not be achieved by consolidating the already-converted 30%. It will be achieved by persuading and accommodating the middle 30%” i.e. those who supported repeal and same-sex marriage but who are uneasy about aspects of the current status quo. I agree.