Positive attitudes towards both immigration and refugees saw a decline in the last half of 2023, new research released by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) has shown, with concern about immigration at its highest level since since 2007.
The research showed that in recent years, there have been declines in some indicators of Irish attitudes towards immigration.
For example, people’s attitudes towards immigration from EU countries was ten percentage points lower in 2023 than it was in 2020. In the last half of 2023, between June and November, people’s positivity towards non-EU immigration also declined – by six percentage points – while people’s feelings that immigrants contribute a lot to Ireland also declined by five percentage points.
“While the overall trend in the last ten years remains positive, this mirrors similar declines in positivity towards immigration across the EU27, and it is too early to tell if it will continue, plateau, or reverse,” the ESRI said.
There has also been an increase in the proportion of people who feel immigration is one of the top two issues facing Ireland today.
The ESRI said that recently there has been a “sharp and substantial rise” in the salience or importance of migration to respondents in Ireland, measured by the proportion of people who say immigration is one of the top two most important issues facing Ireland: from three per cent in July 2022 to 14 per cent in June 2023 and November 2023.
“This concern is now at its highest level since 2007,” the ESRI said.
The research, released on Friday by the Irish think tank, nevertheless found that attitudes in Ireland towards immigration and refugees “remain largely positive, both compared to data on attitudes in Ireland and compared with other European countries.”
The research, citing trends from Eurobarometer and European Social Survey data, revealed that in general, Irish attitudes towards immigration “significantly improved over the last ten years or so,” and that in the most recent period (2020 to 2023), feelings towards immigration are “generally positive.”
“For example, the proportion of people who were positive about both EU and non-EU immigration was at least 16 percentage points higher by the end of 2023 than it was in 2014 (Eurobarometer data).
“In 2022, beliefs that immigrants make the country a better place to live, that the country’s cultural life is enriched by immigrants, and that immigration is good for the economy were at a historic high, based on data going back to 2002, having improved significantly from dips during the recession (European Social Survey data),” the ESRI stated.
However, the organisation reported a fall in positivity regarding people’s attitudes, stating that “attitudes are more positive towards some groups than others.”
The report was released as part of a joint research programme on integration and equality between the ESRI and the Department of Children, Equality, Disability and Youth using representative European survey data.
3,008 adults in Ireland were surveyed in 2023 to gain views, while the research also looks at the factors linked to more or less positive attitudes and “comfort levels” with different migrant groups.
The ESRI said that in recent years, there have been declines in some indicators: positivity towards immigration from EU countries was 10 percentage points lower in 2023 than in 2020 (albeit still higher than 2014-2016).
In addition, several attitudes declined, especially between June and November 2023,” including people’s positivity towards non-EU immigration and people’s feelings that immigrants contribute a lot to Ireland. The thinktank said such declines in Ireland “mirrored” similar declines in average attitudes across the 27 EU member states.
Support for helping refugees declined between June and November 2023 (a 4 percentage-point decline in support), the ESRI said. However, the proportion who support helping refugees is still between 80 and 90 per cent, as it has been since 2015, according to the research.
ATTITUDES TOWARDS DIFFERENT MIGRANT GROUPS
The research also found that people in Ireland hold different attitudes towards different groups of migrants, and are more positive about immigration from other EU Member States and Ukraine than immigration from outside the EU/Ukraine.
“They are more supportive of helping Ukrainian refugees than they are of asylum seekers. They are also more comfortable with having European migrants in their everyday lives, somewhat less comfortable with Ukrainian refugees, and least comfortable with asylum seekers,” the ESRI added.
“People’s attitudes towards asylum seekers and helping refugees, in particular, can form a distinct cluster. While most people who are comfortable with one group of migrants are comfortable with all migrants, a minority of people in Ireland (7 per cent) tend to be very comfortable with Ukrainians and Europeans, but not comfortable with asylum seekers.”
The ESRI also said that while those who support helping refugees are also positive about immigration to Ireland overall, a “significant” proportion of people who do not believe, or are unsure, that Ireland should help refugees are still positive about immigration overall.
“In other words, just because someone is positive towards some groups of migrants or about immigration overall does not mean this extends to feeling comfortable with, or believing Ireland should help, people seeking protection,” the think tank said.
It also said that people’s high support for helping refugees “appears conditional” on the potential costs that providing support might bring.
According to a survey experiment cited in the report, while the majority of people (56 per cent) support helping refugees where no costs of providing support are mentioned, this fell to 38 per cent when supporting refugees could put pressure on services, and 27 per cent if it means raising taxes.
On attitudes towards immigration and refugees, the ESRI said that education and perceived financial strain are “some of the most consistent predictors of immigration attitudes.”
“People with lower qualifications and those who find ‘making ends meet’ more difficult are less positive about immigration overall, believe protesting local international protection arrivals is more acceptable, and feel less comfortable with most migrant groups,” the report claims.
“Broader policy concerns about the problems facing Ireland and the world are also associated with people’s immigration attitudes. People who feel that ‘the economic situation and cost-of-living’ are the most important issues facing either Ireland or the world have somewhat less-positive attitudes towards immigration in general, compared to those who feel things like ‘the environment’, ‘climate change’, ‘poverty’ or ‘racism and discrimination’ are the most important issues,” it adds.
“Those worried about the ‘economic situation and cost-of-living’ are similarly less comfortable with migrants, especially Ukrainian refugees, and asylum seekers.”
The research also shows that people’s perceptions of the past and future are associated with their attitudes towards immigration, stating:
“Those who feel that their quality of life was better in the past or who have less confidence in the future are less positive about immigration overall, and feel less comfortable with migrants in their everyday lives, especially with asylum seekers. People who are less civically engaged (who do not vote or volunteer) are also less positive about immigration in general.”
In addition, it notes: “We see evidence of a link between left-right political orientation and support for immigration, with those who identify as politically left wing more opposed to protests against housing people seeking protection, and more in favour of policy supports for refugees. This may indicate the emergence of a left-right split in attitudes to immigrants in Ireland.”
In addition, people surveyed – either by telephone or in-person – reported no difference in how acceptable they feel it is to protest against either Ukrainian refugees or asylum seekers in a survey experiment designed to reduce the impact of social desirability bias “but do report feeling different levels of comfort towards these groups in a traditional survey setting.”
Authors say that while attitudes towards immigration are “broadly positive” in Ireland, and have remained so in recent years, there are “areas of potential concern.”
This, they say, includes the recent declines in people’s overall positivity towards immigration, their belief that immigrants contribute a lot to Ireland, and that Ireland should help refugees, particularly between June and November 2023.
“There has also been a significant rise in how important people feel immigration is as a policy and political issue in Ireland (the salience of immigration),” authors note.
“Prior research suggests that where immigration is viewed as a very important or salient issue in a country, this can be associated with more negative attitudes to immigration, if coupled with negative changes in an individual’s circumstances or rapid changes in their environments (such as an increase in diversity or economic hardship). Despite these very recent trends, it remains too early to say whether people’s perceptions of immigration will decline further, stabilise, or improve again,” the ESRI report adds.
The think-tank also says attitudes towards asylum seekers have emerged as a potential area of concern.
“Not only are comfort levels lower towards asylum seekers compared to other migrant groups, but they are also distinct in that there is a minority who are comfortable with other groups of migrants but not comfortable with asylum seekers,” it adds.
“Furthermore, factors that predict negative sentiment towards migrants (for example, feeling that life was better in the past, less optimism about the future, or lower levels of education) seem to be more strongly related to attitudes towards asylum seekers. This suggests that when there are social and political challenges, attitudes to asylum seekers are most likely to be affected.”
The ESRI said that given the current cost-of-living crisis, and longer-term worries over access to housing and pressure on health services, it is “concerning” that people who feel they are ‘struggling to make ends meet’ report more negative attitudes across all dimensions of immigration, while those who feel either ‘the economic situation/cost-of-living’ or ‘access to housing and healthcare’ is the most important issue facing Ireland are also less positive about immigration and/or comfortable with migrants.
“This demonstrates that broader policy concerns among people can spill over to shape their worries about immigration. It also shows that attitudes towards immigrants are heavily influenced by social and economic conditions,” the ESRI noted.