Counting is well underway in Northern Ireland’s ‘historic’ Assembly election at three count centres in Belfast, Magherafelt and Jordanstown.
Voters went to the polls yesterday to elect 90 assembly members (MLAs) across the north’s 18 constituencies, with turnout reported to be slightly lower than the 64% who came out to vote in 2017.
A total of 239 candidates stood for election, including a record 87 women. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Sinn Féin are battling it out for top spot in the election, which comes with the entitlement to nominate the next First Minister, a title regarded as symbolically important in the north.
Pre-election polls indicated that the former political wing of the IRA could very well be set to become the first Irish nationalist party to win the most seats in the election to the Assembly for the first time since Northern Ireland’s formation in 1921. This, the party says, is a power shift that could bring the once-remote prospect of a united Ireland closer.
The DUP won 28 seats at the last Assembly election in 2017, just ahead of Sinn Féin’s 27. Next was the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) with 12 seats, the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) with 10, Alliance won eight and the Green Party won two, while People Before Profit and Traditional Unionist Voice had one MLA each.
This year, the DUP ‘played it safe’ in its decision to run 30 candidates, while Sinn Féin is running 34.
EARLY POLLING
With counting well underway, what do we know so far?
DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson is polling well in Lagan Valley first preference votes, but Belfast Live reports that his running mate, former First Minister, Paul Givan, may be relying on transfers. The DUP is reportedly “breathing a sigh of relief” as they appear to be retaining votes, and perhaps not performing as badly as was predicted by some.
Sinn Féin‘s Deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill has arrived at the count centre in Magherafelt, and is expected to top the poll in her constituency of Mid-Ulster. She is tipped to become first minister if her party can pull off the historic election victory many have anticipated. A party tally also has Sinn Fein’s John O’Dowd topping the poll.
The SDLP vote has “collapsed” in many areas according to reports. Dolores Kelly in Upper Bann ‘is toast’, a source told Belfast Live, while Deputy Minister Nicola Mallon in North Belfast is also reportedly battling for her seat — and “could be in trouble,” with her seat potentially being taken by Alliance.
SDLP vote has collapsed in Rostrevor. #AE22 amazing vote for Sinn Féin. Alliance beating SDLP pic.twitter.com/jjwHpvYgJa
— Micéal Ó Sluághain (@mgs_IRL) May 6, 2022
Tallies suggest SDLP deputy leader Nichola Mallon could be in trouble in North Belfast with her seat instead going to Alliance's Nuala McAllister, several sources say.#AE22 @BelfastLive
— Brendan Hughes (@brendanhughes64) May 6, 2022
North Belfast: Tallies have two SF candidates on or around quota of 7,600; DUP Brett appprox 6,500; DUP Kingston 5,000; Alliance 4,300; SDLP 3,500; TUV 3,500; UUP 2,500.
SDLP deputy leader Nichola Mallon expected to lose seat to Alliance's Nuala McAllister.#AE22 @BelfastLive
— Brendan Hughes (@brendanhughes64) May 6, 2022
Naomi Long and the cross-community Alliance Party are expected to make big gains, with early reports indicating the party had experienced a “surge” – taking middle-ground votes from the SDLP and the Ulster Unionists.
Mega media interest in the Alliance surge #AE22 Naomi Long won’t tell me seat numbers but says it’s good day so far. I asked about reform of FM structures. Yes. ‘It just isn’t tenable to treat those of us neither unionists or nationalists like we don’t count in elections’ #others pic.twitter.com/Wo6JnRfzaI
— Amanda Ferguson (@AmandaFBelfast) May 6, 2022
The Ulster Unionist’s seemed to be struggling to hold votes across the North, with leader Doug Beattie reported to be at risk of losing his seat. Reports indicate that he has polled sixth on first preferences in Upper Bann, behind two Sinn Fein candidates, two DUP candidates and one Alliance Party candidate.
UUP leader Doug Beattie at risk of losing Upper Bann seat, acc to sources.
A party tally has SF's John O'Dowd topping the poll, with Beattie behind DUP's Buckley, Alliance's Tennyson, SF's Mackle and DUP's Dodds.
SDLP's Dolores Kelly 'is toast', source says. @BelfastLive #ae22
— Brendan Hughes (@brendanhughes64) May 6, 2022
Doug Beatties’s vote WELL DOWN in Upper Bann (via BBC) #AE2022 pic.twitter.com/RHgynsLNRA
— No Irish Sea Border 🇬🇧 (@NoSeaBorder) May 6, 2022
One UUP source in Magherafelt went as far as to say that the party had been “wiped out,” it was reported.
UUP source telling me that the party has been 'wiped out' so far and says he doesn't know where they go from here@BelfastLive #AE22
— Conor Coyle (@ccoyle212) May 6, 2022
One party which is expected to increase its vote is new pro-life republican party Aontú, a party which is seeking to elect its first MLA in this assembly election. Party leader Peadar Toibin expressed hope that the Aontú vote would “more than double in South Belfast and set us up for council seats.”
Good showing for 1st time Aontú candidate Luke McCann. If this is repeated it will see the Aontú vote more than double in South Belfast and set us up for council seats. #AE22 pic.twitter.com/1oBtach4MS
— Peadar Tóibín TD (@Toibin1) May 6, 2022
The party was also “doing well” in West Belfast this morning, ‘competing with a seat with PBP”.
Aontú doing well in #WestBelfast #AE22
Ahead of the SDLP and competing for a seat with PbP. pic.twitter.com/DWizHUcwQj
— Peadar Tóibín TD (@Toibin1) May 6, 2022
Irish News columnist Patricia McBride tweeted that tallies this morning in Mid Ulster showed that Aontú candidate Alixandra Halliday was “eating into” the SDLP vote.”
https://twitter.com/IRLPatricia/status/1522512144184619011?s=20&t=e9DkXfBrai76961ItRU_mA
Aontú said the decrease in SDLP votes was rooted in leader Colum Eastwood undermining what his own party stands for.
Its hard to see Colum Eastwood's leadership continuing after this.
He has completely undermined what his own party stands for.
— Aontú (@AontuIE) May 6, 2022
The SDLP won’t want to admit it, but abortion has been the key issue in them losing out on the few hundred votes that is the difference between a seat and no seat #AE2022 #AE22
— Michael Kelly ن (@MichaelPTKelly) May 6, 2022
In some areas, there is talk that the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV), a party whose campaign centred on hard-line opposition to the NI protocol, is giving the DUP ‘a run for their money’. With the party’s vote bouncing according to early reports, unionists fear that the TUV has split the unionist vote, and could enable a Sinn Fein victory through its taking of votes from the DUP.
Newry and Armagh #AE22. Rumblings that @TUVonline Keith Radcliffe is giving the @duponline a run for their money. @duponline say they are quietly confident William Irwin will keep the seat. It’s all to play for. @BelTel pic.twitter.com/ASubNc1iaf
— Leona O'Neill (@LeonaONeill1) May 6, 2022
Hearing some early tallies are showing TUV & DUP are neck & neck in some parts of West Tyrone
⚠️It’s very very early in the day. @BBCNewsNI #AE22
— Darran Marshall (@DarranMarshall) May 6, 2022
“Would be ironic if TUV delivered SF majority,” one Twitter comment read.
The Green Party, led by Clare Bailey, is reported to be struggling to retain its two seats.
Like in the south, parties that vote against human rights often lose significant votes. It looks like both Greens seats are in trouble. https://t.co/X1DdGpYocs
— Aontú (@AontuIE) May 6, 2022
The first results in Northern Ireland’s 2022 assembly election are expected to be revealed shortly