Thursday’s EU summit leaders is set to be dominated by other EU member states’ leaders attempting to persuade Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to relent in his veto of a €90 billion arms package to Ukraine.
In December last year, amid the ongoing war with Russia, the loan was in its final stages of being approved, with Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia managing to secure exemptions from being involved in the borrowing process. For this reason, it was expected to be passed by the remaining 24 EU member states without much issue.
However, unexpectedly, in February of this year, Orbán chose to unilaterally veto the package, stalling the entire proceedings and causing significant disquiet among European leaders.
His self-stated reason for this was because there was a cessation of oil deliveries coming through the Druzhba pipeline. Orbán asserted that this was being done deliberately by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “for political reasons”.
This has led to outrage and frustration in Brussels, but Orbán has insisted that “Hungary’s position remains unchanged – if there is no oil, there is no money.”
Zelensky estimates that oil flows could take a month and a half to resume, which would overlap with the Hungarian elections on April 12th.
Significantly, this situation even led to what some interpreted to be a threat from Zelensky to Orbán, who said he would give Orbán’s address to his Ukrainian soldiers so they can speak to him “in his own language” if the arms package was not approved. This caused fury in Budapest, with Orbán’s foreign spokesman accusing Zelensky of attempted “blackmail”.
Hungarian outrage as Zelensky appears to threaten Viktor Orbán
Thursday’s meeting is expected to be centred around trying to convince Orbán to change course, though many in Brussels are not hopeful that this will yield fruit.
Also on the agenda will be surging energy prices, which have soared in the context of the US and Israel’s war in Iran. Global oil prices have breezed past $100 a barrel as a result of the vital Strait of Hormuz being shut, putting significant pressure on the world economy.
European NATO member states have thus far refused to supply minesweepers to keep the strait open in the face of Iranian depth charges, with French President Emmanuel Macron saying that “we are not party to the conflict”. This week US President Donald Trump said he resents this posture, claiming that America has helped Europe significantly in Ukraine, and that Europe is now refusing to return the favour in Iran, which he sees as disloyalty from the United States’ allies.
He also said he took exception to the fact that many European leaders agree that the Iranian regime was a malign force on the world stage that needed to be removed, but won’t back up America’s efforts to achieve that aim.
“I think NATO is making a very foolish mistake,” Trump said on St. Patrick’s Day during an Oval Office meeting with Taoiseach Micheál Martin.
“Everyone agrees with us, but they don’t want to help. And you know, we as the United States have to remember that, because we think it’s pretty shocking.”
Regardless, the EU is feeling the energy crunch just like everyone else, and this week’s summit will focus on how the 27-nation bloc can help to open the strait using diplomatic means rather than military force.
As an immediate short-term fix to the high energy prices, Governments are being encouraged to cut taxes, or offer subsidies to citizens. However, a long-term approach is yet to be decided on.