Ireland’s corporation tax revenues are “exceptionally concentrated” and have become increasingly “risky” for the State’s finances.
In a blog post published today, Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (IFAC) economist Brian Cronin said that the reliance on a “very, very small number” of multinationals grew further in 2024. While the organisation has not named the three multinationals, they are understood to be Apple, Microsoft and pharmaceutical group Eli Lilly.
Cronin noted that this concentration means the Irish tax system is “exposed” to the fortunes of specific companies.
“Ireland’s corporation tax revenues are exceptionally concentrated. This is well-documented,” he said.
“But the growing reliance on a very, very small number of multinationals is less well-known.
“Our estimates suggest that this reliance grew even further in 2024.”
Official figures show that the top ten highest paying corporate groups accounted for almost 60% of total corporation tax receipts in 2024. This is a significant increase from 2008, when the top ten companies accounted for approximately a third of receipts.
Two tech companies have remained in the top three every year since 2017. However, a pharma group that was previously in the top three has been replaced by another US-owned pharmaceutical firm.
“This was the first change in the top three since 2017,” Cronin said.
“The identities of the top three remained the same in 2024 and are likely to have stayed unchanged in 2025.”
He expressed concern that the top three highest paying corporate groups accounted for 46% of all corporation tax revenues in 2024. This is equivalent to roughly €13 billion in tax revenue.
“Greater concentration means greater uncertainty,” he said.
“As corporation tax revenues become more concentrated, they also become more risky.”
Cronin highlighted that two specific tech firms paid almost €11 billion of corporation tax in Ireland in 2024. This accounts for almost 40% of the total corporation tax receipts for the year.
The economist explained that while these companies performed strongly in 2025, there are “clear downside risks” to such a high level of concentration. These risks include potential shifts in US tax, trade, and industrial policy that could influence the location decisions of these firms.
“Relying heavily on just two of the world’s biggest tech companies for a substantial stream of corporation tax revenue carries significant risks,” he said.
“Developments such as new products not selling well, senior leadership change, pivots to new product forms, and tighter regulation of the industry could result in a sharp fall in profits.”
The pharma sector has also seen increased activity in Ireland, particularly regarding the manufacturing of ingredients for weight-loss and diabetes medicines. Some of the increase in tax receipts in 2025 was attributed to a large pharma group frontloading exports to the US ahead of expected tariffs.
Cronin suggested that the current level of risk argues for the Government to save a larger portion of these revenues.
“This argues for saving a larger share of corporation tax than the 13% that the Government currently plans to over 2026–2030,” he said.
Ireland’s corporation tax receipts nearly doubled between 2021 and 2024. This growth was largely driven by the increased payments from the top three payers.
The introduction of a 15% minimum effective tax rate for large corporations is expected to increase receipts further from 2026. It is estimated that this change could yield an additional €5 billion in revenue.
However, Cronin warned that the range of possible outcomes for future tech sector profits remains “very wide and highly uncertain.” He noted that while firms are investing heavily in artificial intelligence, it is unclear if “lofty profit expectations” will be realised.
The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council is an independent statutory body established to provide assessments of the Government’s fiscal performance. Its “Beyond the Budget” series examines long-term trends and risks facing the Irish economy.