A curious feature of the recent debate on Dublin Airport’s passenger cap is the way we are now being exhorted by those in favour of lifting the cap to don the green jersey.
As readers may be aware, a passenger cap of 32 million passengers per year was set by Fingal County Council in 2007 as part of a planning condition relating to vehicular traffic. By 2024, passenger numbers at Dublin had reached that limit – hence the campaign to lift the passenger cap.
Even though Fingal County Council has now issued an enforcement order, the cap has been suspended pending the outcome of legal proceedings by Aer Lingus and Ryan Air which could take up to two years to determine. Meanwhile, passenger numbers at Dublin Airport look set to reach 36m in 2025 alone.
Not surprisingly, the main group lobbying to have the cap lifted is the Dublin Airport Authority (DAA), the body which manages Dublin airport. As part of their campaign, they commissioned consultants InterVistas to compile a report on the impact of not lifting the current 32m passenger cap.
This is where the green jersey comes into play. Their main finding appears to have been that lifting the passenger cap at Dublin Airport would result in the creation of 17,800 jobs and the addition of €1.5bn gross value to the Irish economy by 2030.
However, the devil is in the detail here. The report appears to be somewhat vague as to where in Ireland these jobs would be created. Would it be in places like Leitrim, Mayo or Clare? Hardly. Of course, it’s far more likely that most of these jobs would be created within a 50 km radius of Dublin Airport itself.
The appeal to the green jersey and the ‘jobs for Ireland’ narrative is really something of a red herring. Adding an extra eight million passengers annually to any airport will probably result in the creation of a specific number of jobs but the critical point is that most of these will be concentrated in areas close to the airport. That is as true of Dublin Airport as it is of any other airport.
As it stands, in 2024 Dublin Airport with 32m passengers per year was by far Ireland’s busiest airport accounting for approximately 83% of all air passengers in the Republic of Ireland. In contrast, Cork Airport accounted for 3m (8%); Shannon 2.1m (5%); Knock 834k (2%); Kerry 417k (1%) and finally Donegal with just 40k (.1%)
You could argue that there are positives to the further expansion of Dublin Airport in the form of economies of scale especially on an island like Ireland. However, the connection between large airports, economies of scale and value for money for the travelling passenger isn’t well established.
In fact, large airports around the world are usually better known as price gouging zones where the presence of large numbers of ‘captive’ passengers tends to result in above average prices for most things. The golden rule appears to be that the bigger the airport, the bigger the rip off.
Take airport parking charges. Comparing drive up daily parking charges it emerges that Ireland’s largest airport is in fact close to the top of the table when it comes to parking charges. It’s Ireland’s smaller airports that offer better value for money here.
Airport Daily Drive Up Parking Charges
| Dublin | Cork | Shannon | Knock | Kerry | Donegal |
| €15 | €12 | €17 | €12 | €10 | €7 |
The same will also be likely true for the cost of food and beverages. The golden rule of retail appears to be that the higher the footfall, the higher the prices and Dublin Airport with its 32m annual passengers is the ultimate captive market for anyone selling anything from parking to a cup of coffee.
Of course, no one is suggesting that it should be possible to fly to every destination from any regional airport in Ireland. Clearly, there are commercial realities and not all air routes are commercially viable.
However, it is worth considering just how lopsided Ireland’s airport infrastructure already is. It is reasonable to say that the province of Leinster forms the natural catchment area for Dublin Airport. Yet, while Leinster has 55% of the population of the Republic, Dublin Airport is already handling 83% of all Irish air passenger traffic!
This leads to the ridiculous scenario of air passengers from outside of Leinster routinely having to drive past airports at Cork, Shannon and Knock in order to catch flights from Dublin Airport. There is no reason why many of those flights should not be scheduled from those same airports.
The curious thing about all of this is that the DAA which runs Dublin Airport also runs Cork Airport, its main rival. To a lot of people, that sounds a lot like Tesco managing the local Dunnes Stores in addition to its own retail outlet. That might also help to explain the total dominance of Dublin Airport in Irish aviation.
The Dublin Airport passenger cap saga serves as a snap shot of modern Ireland. Ireland is now a highly centralized and woefully lopsided country which, increasingly, appears to be run in the interests of its Dublin elites. This conjures up a vision of modern Ireland as a glorified city state with Dublin Airport as its airport.
You have to ask – in whose interests is it to raise the passenger cap at Dublin Airport to 36m or 40m passengers annually especially in an airport which doesn’t have a rail or metro link? Perhaps, the best way of answering that question is by listing all of those who are least likely to benefit from such a change.
Clearly, it is not in Ireland’s interest especially if you believe in the concept of balanced regional development. With average house prices now at €600,000 in Dublin neither is it in the interest of ordinary Dubliners to see further overheating of the Dublin economy. And neither is it in the interests of those who live near the airport who would have to live with the consequences of a single airport handling 90%+ of all Irish air traffic.
There are very few single decisions in modern Ireland which can be said to be pivotal in terms of how they could positively affect the development of a country. Keeping the passenger cap at Dublin Airport at 32m passengers is one such decision.
There are plenty of powerful lobby groups who have a lot to gain from lifting the passenger cap and boosting passenger numbers at Dublin Airport upwards towards 40m passengers per year. These are the voices we usually hear in this debate.
Perhaps that’s why it really is time for our decision makers to don the green jersey and make the right decision for Ireland. That involves keeping the passenger cap at Dublin Airport at 32m passengers.