The number of long-term residential care (LTRC) beds and home supports for Ireland’s elderly population will need to increase by at least 60 percent by 2040, according to a new projection from the Economic and Social Research Institute.
The ESRI report, which was funded by the Department of Health, considered a range of scenarios based on different assumptions about population growth and ageing.
It found that by 2040, one in five people in Ireland will be aged 65 or older, while the population aged 85 or older is expected to double in the same timeframe.
The rise in LTRC beds and home supports requirements is being driven by the increase in size of the older population, according to the ESRI.
Short stay bed requirements, such as those following discharge from hospital or rehabilitative care, are projected to grow from 3,745 beds in 2022, to between 6,430 to 7,265 beds by 2040, growth of between 72 to 94 percent, the report details.
Meanwhile, long stay bed requirements, such as those used by residents of nursing homes, are projected to grow from 29,579 beds in 2022, to between 47,590 to 53,270 beds by 2040, growth of between 61 to 80 percent.
The number of home support hours required are projected to grow from 28.7 million in 2022 to between 44.9 million to 54.9 million per year by 2040, growth of between 57 to 91 percent.
The report notes that even at the lower end of the projections, “substantial increases” in LTRC beds and home support hours for older people will be required over the next 15 years.
Commenting on the report, Senior Research Officer at the ESRI and lead author of the report, Dr Brendan Walsh said that Ireland has experienced “tremendous improvements” in life expectancy in recent decades, a change brought about largely by lowering mortality at older ages.
“This means there is, and will be a much larger population at older ages who require long-term care services to support them at home, or within residential facilities.
“Therefore, plans and policies are needed for long-term care to ensure the health system is in a position to meet the increasing care needs of the older population,” Dr Walsh said.
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