Ireland is falling further behind in reaching its greenhouse gas emissions targets, a new report has said. Ireland, which has a target of slashing emissions targets by 50 per cent by 2030, in a worst case scenario, faces a fine of over €26 billion.
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on Wednesday published its greenhouse gas emissions projections for the period 2024-2055. The report shows that if planned climate policies and measures, if fully implemented, could deliver a maximum 22 per cent emissions reduction by 2030 compared to 2018 – a decrease from the 29 per cent reduction projected last year. It is a significant and widening gap to the emissions reduction target of 51 per cent in Ireland’s Climate Act.
The report notes that full implementation across a wide range of policies and plans across all sectors would be needed in order to deliver the 23 per carbon saving. Not only will Ireland not meet its EU Effort Sharing Regulation target of 42 per cent reduction by 2030, but total emissions from the Land Sector are projected to increase by up to 95% and Ireland is unlikely to meet our European commitments in this area.
The first Carbon Budget (2021-2025) of 295 Mt CO2eq is now projected to be exceeded by between 8 to 12 Mt CO2eq. The second budget is now projected to be exceeded by a significant margin of 77 to 114 Mt CO2eq, including carryover from the first Carbon Budget, the EPA said.
Transport, Industry and the Buildings (Residential) sectors are projected to be the furthest from their sectoral emission ceilings in 2030, with emission reductions of up to 21%, 12% and 22% respectively. Agriculture emissions are projected to reduce by up to 16%. A direct comparison of the Agriculture sector against its Sectoral Emission Ceiling is no longer viable due to the impact of updated science underpinning the estimated agriculture greenhouse gas emissions.
Laura Burke, Director General, EPA said: “The EPA’s projections show that full delivery of all climate action plans and policies could deliver a 23 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Although emissions trends are going in the right direction, the gaps to our European and National emission reduction targets are now projected to be larger than last year. This highlights the economy-wide effort needed to decarbonise our society and the focus must shift from policy aspiration to practical implementation.”
Commenting, Mary Frances Rochford, Programme Manager said: “The Agriculture sector has made some progress in reducing emissions through the successful rollout of actions on nitrogen fertilisers, low emission spreading technologies and national liming programmes.
“In parallel, in line with new research, the EPA refined the information underpinning the agricultural figures which has led to a reduction in the overall agriculture emission estimates. It is imperative that this new research and information is incorporated into updated carbon budgets and sectoral ceilings to ensure that they reflect latest science, data and knowledge on greenhouse gas emissions in Ireland and alignment with the national reduction target for the sector of 25%.”
You can read the report in full here.