With the Local and European elections soon upon us, an interesting situation has developed in the Thurles Local Electoral Area (LEA). This LEA will fill 5 seats for Tipperary County Council, while only 6 candidates have opted to put themselves forward for the contest. This essentially means that one unlucky candidate will emerge without success.
From a political anorak point of view, it is an election that provides a useful illustration regarding the Irish voting system: PR-STV. This system has often drawn criticism due to its complexity, so hopefully what follows here goes some way towards providing clarity on how it functions and the importance of providing multiple preferences.
Proportional Representation by the Single Transferrable Vote (PR-STV) is the system Ireland employs for Dáil, European, and Local elections. On polling day, June 7th, you, the voter, are asked to rank, in order of preference, the candidate you wish to see elected. You may mark the number 1 next to the candidate of your choice and stop or continue your preference, further marking 2, 3, 4, etc.
Each constituency in a PR-STV election has a quota. The quota is the number of votes that automatically elects a candidate, and this is established by dividing the valid poll (all votes minus the spoilt votes) by the number of seats plus one seat and then adding one vote. This is technically known as a Droop Quota.
That might seem complicated, so it may be best if we apply some figures as an example. In Thurles, with its 5 seats, the quota will be one sixth of the valid poll plus one vote. If, for instance, the valid poll in the LEA was 6,000, that would be divided by 6 (five seats plus one seat), leaving 1000. A vote is added to this, so the quota is 1001. If a candidate meets the quota, that person is deemed elected.
If, after the first count, no candidate reaches a quota, then the bottom candidate or candidates are eliminated, and their votes are distributed to the remaining candidates depending on the preferences given by voters of those who have been eliminated.
If, however, after the first count, a candidate or candidates achieve a quota, then their surplus is distributed to the candidates below them. The surplus is the number of votes above the quota achieved. Let us imagine again a quota of 1001, and Candidate A receives 1101. This candidate is elected, and their extra 100 votes are given to other candidates depending on the other preferences given on Candidate A’s ballots. This highlights the importance of giving not only a number 1 but also 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 in the Thurles case. Your preferences are instructions for where you wish your vote to go should the candidate you chose as your first preference be either eliminated or if that candidate provides a surplus they do not require for election.
It is important to understand that a candidate does not necessarily require a quota to get elected; in reality, many do not achieve it. The candidate need only be within the frame of capturing a seat when all those below them are eliminated.
So, what is so special about the Thurles LEA in 2024?
Thurles is an interesting case because of its lack of candidates this year; it only has six. To make a comparison, the number of candidates running in the 7-seat Tipperary Cashel LEA is 13, meaning 6 candidates will be unsuccessful there. The maximum number of counts in the Thurles election will be two. If, after the first count, no candidate receives a quota, the person who finishes bottom loses out, and the five above that candidate are elected, and the process concludes.
However, and what may be most likely given past experience, if a candidate reaches a quota at the first count, then that quota must be distributed first, provided there is still a mathematical possibility of the bottom candidate gaining any advantage from it. Therefore, the bottom candidate on the first count could theoretically receive enough surplus votes from the candidate who achieved a quota to leapfrog a competitor into an electable position.
Let us imagine that Candidate B finishes in fifth place after Count 1, and Candidate C finishes bottom. Candidate B has 100 votes. Candidate C has 80. Candidate A, who has achieved a quota, has a surplus of 100 votes to give away. 20 of those votes go to Candidate B, who now has 120. 50 of those votes go to Candidate C, who now has 130. Candidate C, despite getting fewer first preference votes and finishing bottom after Count 1, would be elected due to the second preferences given by Candidate A.
Fair? Some would say not. But no electoral system is perfect, and the Irish people were asked not once but twice by referendum to change to the majoritarian ‘First Past the Post’ method as seen in Britain. Our system is designed to be proportional unlike theirs. What this example of Thurles LEA hopefully has highlighted is the importance of giving multiple preferences as they are often instrumental in deciding whoever achieves electoral success on polling day.
Please exercise your right to vote on June 7th.