Ireland’s lack of security is presenting a “backdoor threat” to the UK, the British think tank Policy Exchange has warned.
The report, backed by former British Defence Secretaries Rt Hon Sir Michael Fallon KCB and Rt Hon Lord Robertson of Port Ellen KT, was also published in the UK Defence Journal this week.
It claims that the “Republic’s Defence Forces and security apparatus remain entirely inadequate, the result of a defence budget of less than 0.5% of GDP since 2000.”
It accuses Dublin of “freeloading” when it comes to European defence, and says:
“The UK also faces a back-door threat from the growing Iranian, Russian and Chinese presence in the Republic of Ireland, a mounting challenge for a chronically deficient Irish security and intelligence apparatus.”
The report, published in the wake of the restoration of the Stormont Executive, goes on to state: “With polling indicating that Sinn Fein is a serious contender in the 2025 election, there seems little prospect of the Republic’s performance on security issues improving any time soon.
“The Party’s longstanding hostility to the UK, and opposition to firmer Irish commitment to Western security, mean that any Government it leads will be no friend to British interests.
“This report therefore calls for the UK Government to expand its naval and air presence in Northern Ireland for maritime patrol missions against Russian intrusion. It also urges the UK and its regional partners to unite and up the ante in pressing Dublin to do its fair share for collective security.”
Policy Exchange makes the argument that the external threats to the UK are so acute that a renewed focus on the strategic importance of Northern Ireland is needed.
“Meanwhile, the expanding Russian, Chinese and Iranian presence in the Republic signals the intent to infiltrate, and interfere in, the transatlantic community,” it claims.
“These risks are compounded by the Republic’s reluctance to invest sufficiently in its military and security apparatus. Ongoing attempts to reform the Irish Defence Forces are crawling forward, which will leave the Republic incapable of policing its own waters – or keeping a watchful eye on potentially hostile elements embedded in Irish society – for years to come.”
In the report’s foreword, Former Security Minister Admiral Lord West of Spithead claims that Ireland has shown “little enthusiasm” for defence expenditure.
“There is no doubt that for reasons of geography the island of Ireland has considerable strategic importance to the UK and NATO,” Lord West writes, adding:
“Sadly, the Republic of Ireland has shown little enthusiasm for defence expenditure preferring to rely on the UK and NATO for their security.”
In a foreword in support of the new report, Sir Michael Fallon and Lord Robertson wrote:
“As defence secretaries in different governments at different times, we know that little attention was paid to the security of the island of Ireland in the immediate aftermath of the Cold War.
“We therefore welcome this new report from Policy Exchange, which powerfully reasserts the strategic importance of Ireland, and especially Northern Ireland, to the UK’s national security.”
The paper also raises concerns about claimed Russian presence in Ireland, and the country’s vulnerability to cyber attacks.
The policy institute pointed to an “inordinately large Russian diplomatic outfit in Dublin”, further stating that the embassy had 30 members of staff in 2022, which is higher than many other European states.
China is identified as another significant threat owing to its global influence and rapid technological advancements.
It states: “Russian intelligence ships and warships have been identified off the Irish coast and close to key transatlantic cables.
“The growing Russian, Iranian and Chinese presence in the Republic poses a backdoor threat to the United Kingdom itself.”
Marcus Solarz Hendriks, author of the Policy Exchange report commented:
“With Russia increasingly probing the vulnerability of transatlantic maritime infrastructure, the UK must take action to police its northwestern waters. As the Republic remains an unable and unwilling partner in the face of this threat, the UK Government must take matters into its own hands by restoring its air and naval presence in Northern Ireland.
“The penetration of Irish society by Russia, China and Iran also raises grave concerns over a back-door threat to the UK. The UK cannot do the job of the Irish state for it but – by fundamentally changing the nature of Northern Irish security arrangements – it will send a strong signal to the Republic that our patience for its evasive commitment to collective security has worn thin.”
When it comes to percentage of GDP, Ireland has the lowest defence spend of all 27 EU member states at just 0.3 per cent. This amounts to “roughly a quarter to a half of what other similar-sized countries in Europe spend,” Former Foreign Minister Simon Coveney previously said.
In 2022, a report from the Irish Defence Forces Commission raised concerns that Ireland is unable to defend its own territory. The report, released in Spring 2022, warned that a continuation of a “business as usual” approach would leave Ireland “without a credible military capability to protect … its people and its resources for any sustained period.”
The paper made 24 recommendations including improved troop protection and a significant boost of military intelligence and cyber defence mechanisms.