In a recent piece for Gript, I discussed the fact that, when the United States sneezes, Ireland catches a cold. Cultural shifts and trends occurring in the US tend to make their way to Irish shores. Take the trans craze sweeping the country, for example. Made in the US and exported to Ireland, the desire to promote trans-friendly narratives (gender is fluid; sex is not binary) is making its way into Irish school curriculums.
Not surprisingly, in recent years, in both the US and Ireland, there has been a rapid increase in the amount of youths identifying as trans. Why is this the case?
Is it because people feel more comfortable voicing their true identities, or is there something more at play — a type of contagion, perhaps?
To be more specific, there has been a sharp rise in cases of gender dysphoria, a condition that involves an individual, usually a teenager, identifying a complete mismatch between their biological sex and their gender identity. Proponents of Rapid Onset Gender Dysphoria (ROGD), a hotly debated theory, argue that various cultural beliefs, values, and social influence result in some adolescents falsely attributing other problems, including mental health issues, to gender dysphoria. In plain English, youngsters with ROGD falsely sense a mismatch between their gender and their biology.
A recent study carried out by academics in California (a literal mecca for the trans community) suggested that many members of the trans community actually realised that their gender identity was different from their sex assigned at birth very early in their lives, and that they intentionally waited for many years before sharing this fact with their friends and family. The authors, eager to rubbish the ROGD hypothesis, insisted that identities in adolescence are not transient; they are consistent, and they continue into adulthood.
“The ROGD hypothesis suggests that transgender and gender diverse identities that become clear after puberty don’t last beyond one’s adolescent years,” noted lead study author Dr. Jack Turban, a psychiatrist at the University of California, San Francisco. “With over 40 percent of transgender and gender diverse adults reporting that they first realized that their gender identity differed from their sex assigned at birth during adolescence, that theory clearly does not hold,” added a defiant Dr. Turban.
However, one can’t help but feel that Turban and his colleagues, intentionally or otherwise, are missing the bigger picture. After all, one study does not really prove (or disprove) anything.
That’s why people like J. Michael Bailey, a professor of psychology at Northwestern University, are prepared to dig deeper.
In a recent piece for The Free Press, Dr. Bailey said that, in an effort to prove that ROGD is a real condition, he and his colleagues, Lisa Littman, a medical doctor, and research psychologist Kenneth Zucker, “will survey both gender-dysphoric adolescents and their parents, following them for at least five years.” Bailey guarantees that the study will have “the potential to establish ROGD” as a legitimate condition.
Not surprisingly, the trio find themselves under fire from the trans community. I reached out to Dr. Bailey for comment on the matter, and why he and his colleagues are pursuing this line of research.
Bailey, an expert on sexual orientation and transgender phenomena, told me that he “first began studying transgender, in the late 1990s, when clinicians didn’t see gender dysphoria beginning in adolescence among girls” (girls are considerably more prone to feelings of gender dysphoria than boys).
“Among natal females,” he added, “gender dysphoria was always associated with extreme masculinity during childhood. But during the past decade, adolescent-onset gender dysphoria without childhood masculinity has been the most common form of gender dysphoria treated at clinics.”
According to Bailey,”it is an epidemic,” one that “is both a scientifically interesting and concerning issue.”
As the number of trans youth living in the US and Europe continues to grow, mainstream media outlets would have us believe that social contagion is not to blame. However, Bailey firmly believes “that social contagion plays a key role here. Dismissing this idea can only be done for ideological reasons, not for scientific reasons.”
He’s right. The spontaneous spread of emotions and beliefs, otherwise known as social contagion, comes in many different flavours. Take herd behavior, for example. This involves the tendency for people to follow groups without actually thinking about why they are following them in the first place.
This is tied to other concepts like mass hysteria and groupthink. Adolescents are particularly prone to the effects of social contagion, largely because they are particularly susceptible to the effects of peer influence. Just like girls are more susceptible to feelings of gender dysphoria than boys, they are also more susceptible to the pressures of peer influence.
ROGD is not a formal diagnosis, and the chances of it ever becoming a formal diagnosis are particularly slim. I asked Bailey why this is the case.
“It is both too new and too controversial,” he responded. “Also, the mental health and medical profession is currently too invested.”
They also appear to be victims of “ideological capture.” This occurs when powerful institutions find themselves taken over, or captured, by ideological groups. Once captured, the goals of these institutions change. As Bailey correctly noted, we live “in a time of identity politics and victimhood culture.” Feelings, no matter how extreme they may be, trump facts.
Bailey wrote that it would be a “huge, important study with the potential to establish the validity of ROGD. (And if ROGD is an incorrect idea, we will show and publish this.)”
Censors have tried to stop scientific progress before. Now, as then, the pursuit of truth requires scientists and researchers who refuse to cow to puritans, ideologues and activists,” he said.
Finally, I asked Bailey if he fears for his job, his reputation, and his own personal safety. “The threat of being cancelled is worse than it’s ever been,” he said. But this is not Bailey’s first time at the cancel culture rodeo. Twenty years ago, the psychologist wrote a book, proactively titled The Man Who Would Be Queen: The Science of Gender-Bending and Transsexualism. The book’s portrayal of transsexualism caused considerable outrage among members of the trans community. Soon after the book was published, Bailey was, in his own words, “severely cancelled.”
Nevertheless, the academic remains committed to the cause. He remains committed to proving that ROGD is a real condition —- even if the “experts” would have us think otherwise