The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a report outlining the potential for Europe to see gaps in energy supply into winter 2023
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol launched the report alongside European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at a press conference in Brussels yesterday.
The report, entitled How to Avoid Gas Shortages in the European Union in 2023,
details how Europe “faces a potential shortfall of almost 30 billion cubic metres of natural gas in 2023” unless certain energy conservation measures are put in place.
The IEA stated that the gap “can be closed and the risk of shortages avoided through stronger efforts to improve energy efficiency, deploy renewables, install heat pumps, promote energy savings and increase gas supplies”
Our new report shows the EU may face a shortfall of nearly 30 bcm of natural gas in 2023 if Russian pipeline supplies drop to zero
But the good news is the EU has options to close this gap
More on the report I presented with President @vonderleyen today: https://t.co/74cbKzK4h7 pic.twitter.com/muokJLVW1x
— Fatih Birol (@fbirol) December 12, 2022
Speaking at the press conference of how Russian gas supply is now 80% less than at this time last year, von der Leyen said the EU has “managed to withstand Russia’s energy blackmail.”
She continued saying, “With our REPowerEU plan to reduce demand for Russian gas by two-thirds before the end of the year, with a mobilisation of up to €300 billion of investments. The result of all this is that we are safe for this winter”.
Birol stated that although significant progress had been made in reducing dependency on Russian natural gas, Europe was “not out of the danger zone yet”.
He continued warning that, “Many of the circumstances that allowed EU countries to fill their storage sites ahead of this winter may well not be repeated in 2023.”
He continued that the IEA’s new analysis shows “that a stronger push on energy efficiency, renewables, heat pumps and simple energy saving actions is vital to head off the risk of shortages and further vicious price spikes next year.”
We have worked hard to be safe for this winter.
We are now turning our focus to preparing 2023, and the next winter.@fbirol from the @IAE and I have discussed the energy outlook and how to avoid gas shortages in 2023 ↓
https://t.co/oGR2ey6Tgo— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) December 12, 2022
The report also recommends “expanding existing programmes and increasing support measures for home renovations and the adoption of efficient appliances and lighting. It also recommends using more smart technologies and encouraging gas-to-electricity switching in industry.”
In terms of supply the report says that ‘options to import more natural gas are limited, there are a handful of countries with spare export capacity who could increase exports by capturing gas that is currently being flared.”
It also outlines opportunities to increase the production of low-emission bio gases.